Super League Greece
Panetolikos vs 
Asteras Tripolis Cards
Result
Settled, final score 3-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.0% for over 2.5 to 37.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.9%. Head to head on cards, Asteras Tripolis are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.4%, with a level count at 17.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.4% | 62.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.1%
36.2%
76.9%
53.0%
Card handicap
| Panetolikos line | Panetolikos | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.0% | 84.0% |
| -0.5 | 29.8% | 70.2% |
| +0.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| +1.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.4% | 13.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 65.8% | 34.2% |
This season (2025/26)
2.6Panetolikos cards per game13.5Panetolikos fouls per game3.0Asteras Tripolis cards per game14.0Asteras Tripolis fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis. Slightly more cards are projected for Asteras Tripolis for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
72.7%Over 3.5 cards25.5%Any red card63.1%Panetolikos over 1.5 cards76.9%Asteras Tripolis over 1.5 cards77.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Panetolikos over 1.5 cards sits at 63.1% and Asteras Tripolis at 76.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.5% (Panetolikos 11.5%, Asteras Tripolis 15.7%). This season Panetolikos have averaged 2.6 cards a game and Asteras Tripolis 3.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.7% for Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis.
Will there be a red card in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 25.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Before kickoff, the model rated Asteras Tripolis to pick up more cards at 52.4%, with a level count at 17.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.