Super League Greece
Panathinaikos vs 
Kifisia Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 79.2% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 65.9% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 79.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 90.8% for over 2.5 to 46.2% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.2%. On the card count, Kifisia are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 58.2%, with a level count at 16.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 90.8% | 9.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 46.2% | 53.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
65.1%
38.4%
83.2%
62.5%
Card handicap
| Panathinaikos line | Panathinaikos | Kifisia |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| -0.5 | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| +0.5 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| +1.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 94.1% | 5.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 88.7% | 11.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 80.8% | 19.2% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Panathinaikos vs Kifisia. The model leans toward Kifisia for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
79.2%Over 3.5 cards34.1%Any red card65.1%Panathinaikos over 1.5 cards83.2%Kifisia over 1.5 cards88.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Panathinaikos over 1.5 cards sits at 65.1% and Kifisia at 83.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 34.1% (Panathinaikos 11.0%, Kifisia 26.0%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Panathinaikos vs Kifisia?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 79.2% for Panathinaikos vs Kifisia.
Will there be a red card in Panathinaikos vs Kifisia?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 34.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Panathinaikos vs Kifisia?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kifisia to pick up more cards at 58.2%, with a level count at 16.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.