Championship
Norwich vs Bolton Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 56.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Norwich have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Bolton 1.0 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 56.8% for over 2.5 and 80.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Norwich have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Bolton in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.3% | 5.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 8.0% | 92.0% |
Team goal lines
86.5%
59.4%
32.3%
61.8%
25.1%
7.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 59.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.6% | 83.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 21.9% | 78.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.9Norwich goals scored per game1.9Norwich goals conceded per game85.7%Norwich Over 2.5 rate1.1Norwich 1st-half goals per game1.0Bolton goals scored per game1.7Bolton goals conceded per game57.1%Bolton Over 2.5 rate0.7Bolton 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
54.0%Both Teams to Score56.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 56.8% for three or more goals and 80.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Norwich favoured at 60.9%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Norwich to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Norwich 3 · 1 draws · Bolton 1 · 3.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Norwich vs Bolton?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 56.8% for Norwich vs Bolton.
Will there be a first-half goal in Norwich vs Bolton?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 75.3%.
How often have Norwich gone over 2.5 recently?
Norwich have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Bolton in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
