Ligue 1
Nice vs 
Lille Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 50.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.1% for over 2.5 to 16.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.1%. On the card count, Lille are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 21.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.7% | 83.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.4%
23.2%
59.9%
32.8%
Card handicap
| Nice line | Nice | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| -0.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| +0.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| +1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.2% | 60.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nice vs Lille. The model leans toward Lille for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.1%Over 3.5 cards16.4%Any red card49.4%Nice over 1.5 cards59.9%Lille over 1.5 cards53.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Nice over 1.5 cards sits at 49.4% and Lille at 59.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.4% (Nice 8.9%, Lille 8.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Nice vs Lille?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.1% for Nice vs Lille.
Will there be a red card in Nice vs Lille?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Nice vs Lille?
The model rates Lille to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,114 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.