League TwoNewport County vs Fleetwood Town Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 72.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Fleetwood Town are favoured at 41.0%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 1.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Newport County by 1 | 18.2% |
| Newport County by 2 | 9.0% |
| Newport County by 3+ | 4.3% |
| Fleetwood Town by 1 | 21.4% |
| Fleetwood Town by 2 | 12.3% |
| Fleetwood Town by 3+ | 7.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
Goal handicap
| Newport County line | Newport County | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.2% | 86.8% |
| -0.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| +0.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| +1.5 | 80.4% | 19.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Newport County goals scored per game2.0Newport County goals conceded per game1.2Fleetwood Town goals scored per game0.6Fleetwood Town goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Newport County or Fleetwood Town on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
52.8%Both Teams to Score47.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Fleetwood Town are favoured at 41.0%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Newport County 0 · 2 draws · Fleetwood Town 2 · 1.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Newport County vs Fleetwood Town?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Newport County vs Fleetwood Town at 72.4%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Newport County vs Fleetwood Town?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Newport County at 43.4% and Fleetwood Town at 56.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.