Premier League
Newcastle vs 
Bournemouth Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 56.0% and it landed (25 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 69.4% and it missed (7 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 56.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.1% for over 22.5 to 33.9% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.6%. On the shot count, Newcastle are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.6%, with a level count at 5.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.9% | 66.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.3%
58.5%
43.4%
58.7%
42.1%
27.7%
Shot handicap
| Newcastle line | Newcastle | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| -2.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| -0.5 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| +0.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 47.0% | 53.0% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Newcastle.
In-depth analysis
56.0%Over 24.5 shots58.5%Newcastle over 12.5 shots42.1%Bournemouth over 12.5 shots69.4%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Newcastle over 12.5 shots sits at 58.5% and Bournemouth at 42.1%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 56.0% for Newcastle vs Bournemouth.
Which team will have more shots in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated Newcastle to take more shots at 58.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.