Premier League
Newcastle vs 
Bournemouth Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 61.1% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 88.2% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 61.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.5% for over 2.5 to 25.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.7%. Head to head on cards, Bournemouth are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 56.8%, with a level count at 18.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 25.3% | 74.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.1%
23.8%
72.4%
47.0%
Card handicap
| Newcastle line | Newcastle | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.6% | 88.4% |
| -0.5 | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| +0.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| +1.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Newcastle vs Bournemouth. It tips Bournemouth for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
61.1%Over 3.5 cards11.8%Any red card50.1%Newcastle over 1.5 cards72.4%Bournemouth over 1.5 cards50.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Newcastle over 1.5 cards sits at 50.1% and Bournemouth at 72.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.8% (Newcastle 6.2%, Bournemouth 6.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 61.1% for Newcastle vs Bournemouth.
Will there be a red card in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bournemouth to pick up more cards at 56.8%, with a level count at 18.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.