Expected Goals (xG)

1.20Monaco xG created/game

1.35Monaco xG conceded/game

2.49Lens xG created/game

1.29Lens xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Monaco have created 1.20 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Lens have created 2.49 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

39.5%Favoured: Lens

62.8%Both Teams to Score

60.2%Over 2.5 goals

These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Match outlook

The model leans Lens to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Monaco 2 · 1 draws · Lens 2 · 4.2 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More Ligue 1, Expected Goals (xG)

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