ChampionshipMillwall vs Wrexham Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 51.8% and it landed (13 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 54.3% and it missed (3 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 48.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 60.9% for over 22.5 to 25.4% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.2%. On the shot count, Millwall are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.3%, with a level count at 5.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.4% | 74.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.5%
58.5%
42.1%
48.4%
30.6%
17.3%
Shot handicap
| Millwall line | Millwall | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| -2.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| -0.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| +0.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.3% | 69.7% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Millwall.
In-depth analysis
48.2%Over 24.5 shots58.5%Millwall over 12.5 shots30.6%Wrexham over 12.5 shots54.3%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Millwall over 12.5 shots sits at 58.5% and Wrexham at 30.6%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Millwall vs Wrexham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 48.2% for Millwall vs Wrexham.
Which team will have more shots in Millwall vs Wrexham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Millwall to take more shots at 66.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.