Pro League
Mechelen vs 
Anderlecht Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 60.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 71.7% for over 22.5 to 37.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. Head to head on shots, Mechelen are the model’s pick to have more shots at 56.3%, with a level count at 5.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 37.7% | 62.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.3%
60.3%
44.7%
64.2%
47.2%
31.8%
Shot handicap
| Mechelen line | Mechelen | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| -2.5 | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| -0.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| +0.5 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 78.4% | 21.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 56.2% | 43.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
10.6Mechelen shots per game15.6Mechelen shots faced per game17.2Anderlecht shots per game8.8Anderlecht shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Mechelen.
In-depth analysis
60.7%Over 24.5 shots60.3%Mechelen over 12.5 shots47.2%Anderlecht over 12.5 shots67.8%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Mechelen over 12.5 shots sits at 60.3% and Anderlecht at 47.2%. This season Mechelen have averaged 10.6 shots a game and Anderlecht 17.2.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Mechelen vs Anderlecht?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 60.7% for Mechelen vs Anderlecht.
Which team will have more shots in Mechelen vs Anderlecht?
The model rates Mechelen to take more shots at 56.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.