Premier League
Manchester City vs 
Coventry Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 50.1% and it missed (27 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 61.2% and it missed (7 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 49.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 61.6% for over 22.5 to 28.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.9%. Head to head on shots, Manchester City are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.7%, with a level count at 5.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.2% | 71.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.4%
59.8%
44.8%
48.0%
31.6%
19.0%
Shot handicap
| Manchester City line | Manchester City | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.5% | 56.6% |
| -2.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| -0.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| +0.5 | 72.0% | 28.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.9% | 62.1% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Manchester City.
In-depth analysis
49.9%Over 24.5 shots59.8%Manchester City over 12.5 shots31.6%Coventry over 12.5 shots61.2%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Manchester City over 12.5 shots sits at 59.8% and Coventry at 31.6%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Manchester City vs Coventry?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 49.9% for Manchester City vs Coventry.
Which team will have more shots in Manchester City vs Coventry?
Before kickoff, the model rated Manchester City to take more shots at 66.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.