Segunda DivisiónSp Gijon vs Eldense Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 45.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.0% for over 7.5 to 17.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.6%. On the corner count, Sp Gijon are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 50.8%, with a level count at 11.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.0% | 83.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
70.2%
54.1%
38.6%
61.7%
44.5%
29.4%
Corner handicap
| Sp Gijon line | Sp Gijon | Eldense |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| -0.5 | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| +0.5 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| +1.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Sp Gijon.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Sp Gijon over 4.5 corners sits at 54.1% and Eldense at 44.5%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Sp Gijon vs Eldense?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.6% for Sp Gijon vs Eldense.
Which team will win the corner count in Sp Gijon vs Eldense?
The model rates Sp Gijon to win the corner count at 50.8%, with a level count at 11.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.