Super League Greece
Levadeiakos vs 
Panathinaikos Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 75.5% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 75.3% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 75.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 88.7% for over 2.5 to 41.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.5%. On the card count, Panathinaikos are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 17.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.7% | 11.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 41.0% | 59.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.1%
43.0%
76.0%
51.8%
Card handicap
| Levadeiakos line | Levadeiakos | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| -0.5 | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| +0.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| +1.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 92.9% | 7.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 78.3% | 21.8% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Levadeiakos vs Panathinaikos. Slightly more cards are projected for Panathinaikos for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
75.5%Over 3.5 cards24.7%Any red card69.1%Levadeiakos over 1.5 cards76.0%Panathinaikos over 1.5 cards86.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Levadeiakos over 1.5 cards sits at 69.1% and Panathinaikos at 76.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.7% (Levadeiakos 10.9%, Panathinaikos 15.5%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Levadeiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 75.5% for Levadeiakos vs Panathinaikos.
Will there be a red card in Levadeiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 24.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Levadeiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Before kickoff, the model rated Panathinaikos to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 17.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.