Dijon vs St Etienne: model prediction
Ligue 2Draw or St Etienne
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time8 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was St Etienne at 60.5%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.5% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.0% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.7% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 50.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 59.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 77.4% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 57.4% and it landed (6 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 50.3% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 61.0% and it missed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.6% and it landed (19 shots on target). We called No at 90.0% and it landed.
| Match data | Dijon | St Etienne |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 2 |
| Shots | 13 | 17 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 12 |
| Corners | 3 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 13 | 14 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on St Etienne, that gap is the story." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes St Etienne heavy favourites at 60% when Dijon meet St Etienne in the Ligue 2 on 31 August 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on St Etienne than the market (51%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. Dijon are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The recent series reads 1 wins for Dijon, 0 draws and 1 for St Etienne over 2 games, 2.5 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Dijon W1 D3 L2, St Etienne W4 D0 L2. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
16.5%-5.4%
22.9%-4.4%
60.5%+9.6%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Dijon 1 · 0 draws · St Etienne 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
St EtienneLeague averages this season: 2.30 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 37% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.0% | Over 7.5 | 56.6% | Over 8.5 | 44.1% | Over 9.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Dijon | 48.6% | Most: St Etienne | 38.7% | ||||
| Dijon Over 4.2 | 43.0% | St Etienne Over 4.2 | 35.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.2% | Over 3.5 | 50.3% | Over 4.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Dijon | 40.7% | Most: St Etienne | 37.7% | ||
| Dijon Over 1.8 | 56.1% | St Etienne Over 1.8 | 53.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Dijon clean sheet | 15.1% |
|---|---|
| St Etienne clean sheet | 40.8% |
| Dijon win to nil | 8.3% |
| St Etienne win to nil | 34.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 16.5% | draw | 22.9% | away | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 39.5% | 12 | 77.1% | X2 | 83.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 21.5% | away | 78.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.4% | no | 49.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 15.1% | away | 41.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 8.3% | away | 34.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 11.1% | home_by_2 | 4.1% | home_by_3plus | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 24.3% | away_by_2 | 18.8% | away_by_3plus | 17.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 0-1 | 11.2% | 0-2 | 11.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 7.0% | 0-4 | 3.3% | 0-5 | 1.3% |
| 1-0 | 5.0% | 1-1 | 10.9% | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-3 | 6.2% | 1-4 | 2.9% | 1-5 | 1.1% |
| 2-0 | 2.4% | 2-1 | 4.6% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 2.8% | 2-4 | 1.3% | 2-5 | 0.5% |
| 3-0 | 0.7% | 3-1 | 1.4% | 3-2 | 1.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.2% | 4-1 | 0.3% | 4-2 | 0.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.0% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 0.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.3% | under_0.5 | 6.8% | over_1.5 | 77.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.0% | over_2.5 | 52.5% | under_2.5 | 47.5% |
| over_3.5 | 30.3% | under_3.5 | 69.7% | over_4.5 | 14.9% |
| under_4.5 | 85.1% | over_5.5 | 6.3% | under_5.5 | 93.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 58.7% | under_0.5 | 41.3% | over_1.5 | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.8% | over_2.5 | 6.0% | under_2.5 | 94.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 84.9% | under_0.5 | 15.1% | over_1.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 43.6% | over_2.5 | 29.5% | under_2.5 | 70.5% |
most
| home | 16.5% | draw | 22.9% | away | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 1.3% | away_+2.5 | 98.7% | home_-1.5 | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 94.5% | home_-0.5 | 16.5% | away_+0.5 | 83.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 39.5% | away_-0.5 | 60.5% | home_+1.5 | 63.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 36.3% | home_+2.5 | 82.5% | away_-2.5 | 17.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.8% | exact_1 | 16.2% | exact_2 | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.4% | exact_5 | 8.6% |
| exact_6 | 4.0% | exact_7plus | 2.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 16.7% | draw | 48.6% | away | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 59.3% | under_0.5 | 40.7% | over_1.5 | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.3% | over_2.5 | 6.3% | under_2.5 | 93.7% |
btts
| yes | 12.0% | no | 88.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 40.7% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 16.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.9% | exact_4plus | 1.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 24.0% | draw | 36.4% | away | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.4% | under_0.5 | 22.6% | over_1.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.2% | over_2.5 | 18.8% | under_2.5 | 81.2% |
btts
| yes | 26.7% | no | 73.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 10.7% | H/D | 3.9% | H/A | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.7% | D/D | 17.7% | D/A | 19.3% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 28.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 67.2% | under_7.5 | 32.8% | over_8.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 45.1% | over_9.5 | 42.6% | under_9.5 | 57.4% |
| over_10.5 | 31.4% | under_10.5 | 68.6% | over_11.5 | 22.0% |
| under_11.5 | 78.0% | over_12.5 | 14.7% | under_12.5 | 85.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.5% | under_3.5 | 31.5% | over_4.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.8% | over_5.5 | 36.9% | under_5.5 | 63.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.2% | under_3.5 | 41.9% | over_4.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.2% | over_5.5 | 26.3% | under_5.5 | 73.7% |
most
| home | 51.9% | draw | 11.3% | away | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.0% | away_+3.5 | 79.0% | home_-1.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.5% | home_-0.5 | 51.9% | away_+0.5 | 48.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.2% | away_-0.5 | 36.8% | home_+1.5 | 73.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.6% | home_+3.5 | 88.4% | away_-3.5 | 11.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 51.8% | under_22.5 | 48.2% | over_24.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 61.0% | over_26.5 | 27.7% | under_26.5 | 72.3% |
| over_28.5 | 18.4% | under_28.5 | 81.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.0% | under_10.5 | 35.0% | over_12.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 52.7% | over_14.5 | 31.2% | under_14.5 | 68.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.3% | under_10.5 | 52.7% | over_12.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.4% | over_14.5 | 16.5% | under_14.5 | 83.5% |
most
| home | 59.5% | draw | 6.4% | away | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.4% | away_+4.5 | 66.6% | home_-2.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.8% | home_-0.5 | 59.5% | away_+0.5 | 40.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.8% | away_-0.5 | 34.2% | home_+2.5 | 77.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.9% | home_+4.5 | 85.9% | away_-4.5 | 14.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.0% | under_6.5 | 31.0% | over_7.5 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.4% | over_8.5 | 44.1% | under_8.5 | 55.9% |
| over_9.5 | 32.8% | under_9.5 | 67.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.2% | under_3.5 | 39.8% | over_4.5 | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.0% | over_5.5 | 28.2% | under_5.5 | 71.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.3% | under_3.5 | 46.7% | over_4.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.1% | over_5.5 | 22.1% | under_5.5 | 77.9% |
most
| home | 48.6% | draw | 12.8% | away | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.0% | away_+2.5 | 75.0% | home_-0.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.4% | home_+0.5 | 61.4% | away_-0.5 | 38.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.4% | away_-2.5 | 17.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.2% | under_2.5 | 28.8% | over_3.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 49.7% | over_4.5 | 31.0% | under_4.5 | 69.0% |
| over_5.5 | 16.8% | under_5.5 | 83.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 56.1% | under_1.5 | 43.9% | over_2.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 53.9% | under_1.5 | 46.1% | over_2.5 | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.9% |
most
| home | 40.7% | draw | 21.6% | away | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.9% | away_+1.5 | 78.1% | home_-0.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.3% | home_+0.5 | 62.3% | away_-0.5 | 37.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 80.4% | away_-1.5 | 19.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 89.5% | under_20.5 | 10.5% | over_22.5 | 80.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 19.1% | over_24.5 | 69.5% | under_24.5 | 30.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 85.4% | under_9.5 | 14.6% | over_11.5 | 69.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.3% | over_13.5 | 50.5% | under_13.5 | 49.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 85.8% | under_9.5 | 14.2% | over_11.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.7% | over_13.5 | 51.2% | under_13.5 | 48.8% |
most
| home | 46.0% | draw | 7.0% | away | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.7% | away_+3.5 | 73.3% | home_-0.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.0% | home_+2.5 | 66.4% | away_-2.5 | 33.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.0% | no | 90.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.3% | no | 94.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Dijon predictions · St Etienne predictions · Ligue 2
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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