Segunda División
Leganes vs Eldense Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 72.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 86.8% for over 2.5 to 37.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.5%. Between the two sides, Eldense are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.1%, with a level count at 18.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.0% | 63.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
68.3%
42.0%
72.4%
47.0%
Card handicap
| Leganes line | Leganes | Eldense |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| -0.5 | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| +0.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| +1.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.8% | 18.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.9% | 42.1% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Leganes vs Eldense. The model leans toward Eldense for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
72.3%Over 3.5 cards11.6%Any red card68.3%Leganes over 1.5 cards72.4%Eldense over 1.5 cards70.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Leganes over 1.5 cards sits at 68.3% and Eldense at 72.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.6% (Leganes 7.0%, Eldense 5.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Leganes vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.3% for Leganes vs Eldense.
Will there be a red card in Leganes vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Leganes vs Eldense?
Before kickoff, the model rated Eldense to pick up more cards at 44.1%, with a level count at 18.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.