Super League Greece
Kalamata vs 
Aris Shots
Result
Settled, final score 2-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 37.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 49.0% for over 22.5 to 18.9% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.0%. Head to head on shots, Kalamata are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.8%, with a level count at 5.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 18.9% | 81.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
62.2%
46.3%
31.9%
44.1%
28.5%
16.9%
Shot handicap
| Kalamata line | Kalamata | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| -2.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| -0.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| +0.5 | 65.6% | 34.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 28.5% | 71.5% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Kalamata.
In-depth analysis
37.5%Over 24.5 shots46.3%Kalamata over 12.5 shots28.5%Aris over 12.5 shots50.3%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Kalamata over 12.5 shots sits at 46.3% and Aris at 28.5%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Kalamata vs Aris?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 37.5% for Kalamata vs Aris.
Which team will have more shots in Kalamata vs Aris?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kalamata to take more shots at 59.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,984 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.