Super League Greece
Kalamata vs 
Aris Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 76.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 89.0% for over 2.5 to 41.7% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.7%. On the card count, Aris are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.8%, with a level count at 17.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 89.0% | 11.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 41.7% | 58.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.1%
42.9%
76.7%
52.8%
Card handicap
| Kalamata line | Kalamata | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.7% | 80.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| +0.5 | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| +1.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 90.0% | 10.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 72.4% | 27.6% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Kalamata vs Aris. Slightly more cards are projected for Aris for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
76.0%Over 3.5 cards26.0%Any red card69.1%Kalamata over 1.5 cards76.7%Aris over 1.5 cards82.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Kalamata over 1.5 cards sits at 69.1% and Aris at 76.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 26.0% (Kalamata 12.7%, Aris 15.3%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Kalamata vs Aris?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 76.0% for Kalamata vs Aris.
Will there be a red card in Kalamata vs Aris?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 26.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Kalamata vs Aris?
Before kickoff, the model rated Aris to pick up more cards at 47.8%, with a level count at 17.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.