Serie A
Juventus vs 
Milan Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 51.4% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 90.5% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.3% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.6%. Head to head on cards, Milan are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 21.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.4% | 83.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.2%
22.9%
58.1%
31.9%
Card handicap
| Juventus line | Juventus | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.2% | 83.8% |
| -0.5 | 32.7% | 67.4% |
| +0.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| +1.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.6% | 64.4% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Juventus vs Milan. Slightly more cards are projected for Milan for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.6%Over 3.5 cards9.5%Any red card48.2%Juventus over 1.5 cards58.1%Milan over 1.5 cards49.0%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Juventus over 1.5 cards sits at 48.2% and Milan at 58.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.5% (Juventus 2.2%, Milan 7.4%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Juventus vs Milan?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 48.6% for Juventus vs Milan.
Will there be a red card in Juventus vs Milan?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Juventus vs Milan?
Before kickoff, the model rated Milan to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.