Cagliari vs Lecce prediction & probabilities (2026-09-07)

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Cagliari vs Lecce: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

Serie A
Cagliari

LWWWL

Full time1-0Mon, 7 Sep 202617:30UK29°C · Clearing
Lecce

LWWWL

Model’s top convictions

72%

Cagliari or draw

67%

Over 1.5 goals

60%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Cagliari 1-0 Lecce
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Cagliari at 42.9%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 60.4% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.8% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 80.4% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 54.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 60.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 69.7% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 55.2% and it missed (12 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 54.1% and it missed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.8% and it missed (30 shots). We called Under 7.5 at 51.1% and it missed (12 shots on target). We called No at 89.4% and it landed.

Match data Cagliari Lecce
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 20 10
Shots, 1st half 8 5
Shots, 2nd half 12 5
Shots on target 9 3
Corners 7 5
Yellow cards 1 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 9 13
Expected goals (xG) 1.92 0.45

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
CagliariWin probability
42.9%
Top 3 convictions

Cagliari or draw72.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Over 1.5 goals66.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Under 2.5 goals60.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.66

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Cagliari: 43% is the model's line for this Serie A meeting on 7 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 40% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. 2) The run in: Cagliari arrive W3 D1 L2, Lecce W4 D0 L2. 3) For shots markets, Gennaro Borrelli is the obvious watch at 0.8 on target per 90 in recent data. One eye on the skies, with 29 degrees of heat in the forecast. The recent series reads 2 wins for Cagliari, 1 draws and 2 for Lecce over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.3%@ 2.26
Over 2.5 goals39.6%@ 2.53
Over 10.5 corners35.4%@ 2.82
Medium risk

Draw or Lecce57.1%@ 1.75
Not both teams to score54.1%@ 1.85
Over 8.5 corners53.9%@ 1.86
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.34
1-0 correct score12.7%@ 7.86
0-0 correct score11.1%@ 9.01

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Cagliari

42.9%

Draw

29.2%

Lecce

27.9%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.6%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes45.9%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.553.9%

Good chance

Over 9.544.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.6%

Low chance

Most cornersCagliari54.3%Lecce35.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.3%

Good chance

Over 24.547.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.7%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.6%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.7%2.539.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.566.7%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

CagliariLWWWL
LecceLWWWL

Last 5 meetings: Cagliari 2 · 1 draws · Lecce 2 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-02-16Cagliari 0-2 Lecce
2025-09-19Lecce 1-2 Cagliari
2025-01-19Cagliari 4-1 Lecce
2024-08-31Lecce 1-0 Cagliari
2024-05-05Cagliari 1-1 Lecce

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CagliariLecce
League position#12 of 20#13 of 20
Record W-D-L1-0-11-0-1
Current streakL1L1
Record, home vs away0-0-11-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.45 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 45% · BTTS in 35%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Gennaro BorrelliCagliari · key player
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target33.7%

@ 2.97

2+ shots30.3%

@ 3.30

Shots/90 2.23SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.35
Willem GeubbelsLecce · key player
To score17.4%

@ 5.75

1+ on target32.1%

@ 3.12

2+ shots34.8%

@ 2.87

Shots/90 2.51SoT/90 0.79Goals/90 0.39
Mattia FeliciCagliari · in form
To score6.2%

@ 16.13

1+ on target31.4%

@ 3.18

2+ shots11.0%

@ 9.09

Shots/90 1.24SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.14
Konan N’DriLecce · in form
To score5.0%

@ 20.00

1+ on target16.1%

@ 6.21

2+ shots18.2%

@ 5.49

Shots/90 3.18SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.21
Daniel MaldiniCagliari · in form
To score12.9%

@ 7.75

1+ on target35.6%

@ 2.81

2+ shots40.2%

@ 2.49

Shots/90 2.51SoT/90 0.8Goals/90 0.25
Nikola StulicLecce · in form
To score10.3%

@ 9.71

1+ on target24.2%

@ 4.13

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 1.84SoT/90 0.51Goals/90 0.2

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Cagliari win2.32
Draw3.39
Lecce win3.64
Both teams to score2.18

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.50
Over 2.5 goals2.52
Over 3.5 goals5.10
Cagliari most2.32
Lecce most3.64

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.51
Over 8.5 corners1.80
Over 9.5 corners2.23
Over 10.5 corners2.85
Cagliari most1.84
Lecce most2.80

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.49
Over 3.5 cards2.18
Over 4.5 cards3.63
Over 5.5 cards6.83
Cagliari most2.69
Lecce most2.45

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.64
Over 7.5 SoT2.04
Over 8.5 SoT2.65
Over 9.5 SoT3.57
Cagliari most1.97
Lecce most2.70

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.69
Over 24.5 shots2.12
Over 26.5 shots2.80
Over 28.5 shots3.90
Cagliari most1.70
Lecce most2.84

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.26
Over 22.5 fouls1.47
Over 24.5 fouls1.82
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 60.9% Over 7.5 48.9% Over 8.5 37.7% Over 9.5 28.0%
Most: Cagliari 50.6% Most: Lecce 37.1%
Cagliari Over 4.2 39.6% Lecce Over 4.2 30.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 67.0% Over 3.5 45.9% Over 4.5 27.5%
Most: Cagliari 37.2% Most: Lecce 40.8%
Cagliari Over 1.8 50.1% Lecce Over 1.8 52.8%

Cagliari: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Gennaro Borrelli 2.23 0.83 0.35 33.7% 30.3% 15.9%
Mattia Felici 1.24 0.83 0.14 31.4% 11.0% 6.2%
Daniel Maldini 2.51 0.8 0.25 35.6% 40.2% 12.9%
Paul Mendy 3.77 0.79 0.4 30.4% 51.6% 16.8%
Kevin Omoruyi 2.21 0.7 0 25.2% 23.3% 0.0%

Lecce: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Willem Geubbels 2.51 0.79 0.39 32.1% 34.8% 17.4%
Konan N’Dri 3.18 0.72 0.21 16.1% 18.2% 5.0%
Nikola Stulic 1.84 0.51 0.2 24.2% 26.4% 10.3%
Omri Gandelman 0.93 0.28 0.19 14.0% 9.1% 9.8%
Santiago Pierotti 1.18 0.25 0.1 16.7% 21.4% 7.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Cagliari clean sheet 37.6%
Lecce clean sheet 27.5%
Cagliari win to nil 26.5%
Lecce win to nil 16.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 43.1% draw 29.5% away 27.5%
double_chance
1X 72.6% 12 70.5% X2 56.9%
dnb
home 61.1% away 38.9%
btts
yes 45.9% no 54.1%
clean_sheet
home 37.7% away 27.5%
win_to_nil
home 26.6% away 16.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.1% home_by_2 12.9% home_by_3plus 7.1%
away_by_1 17.3% away_by_2 7.4% away_by_3plus 2.8%
correct_score
0-0 11.1% 0-1 9.4% 0-2 4.9%
0-3 1.6% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.7% 1-1 13.6% 1-2 6.3%
1-3 2.1% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.6% 2-1 8.4% 2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.7% 3-1 3.6% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.9% under_0.5 11.1% over_1.5 66.8%
under_1.5 33.3% over_2.5 39.6% under_2.5 60.4%
over_3.5 19.6% under_3.5 80.4% over_4.5 8.2%
under_4.5 91.8% over_5.5 3.0% under_5.5 97.0%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.5% over_1.5 37.1%
under_1.5 62.9% over_2.5 14.2% under_2.5 85.8%
team_away
over_0.5 62.3% under_0.5 37.7% over_1.5 25.7%
under_1.5 74.3% over_2.5 7.7% under_2.5 92.3%
most
home 43.1% draw 29.5% away 27.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.1% away_+2.5 92.9% home_-1.5 20.0%
away_+1.5 80.1% home_-0.5 43.1% away_+0.5 56.9%
home_+0.5 72.6% away_-0.5 27.5% home_+1.5 89.8%
away_-1.5 10.2% home_+2.5 97.2% away_-2.5 2.8%
total_exact
exact_0 11.1% exact_1 22.2% exact_2 27.1%
exact_3 20.0% exact_4 11.4% exact_5 5.3%
exact_6 2.0% exact_7plus 0.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.0% draw 48.4% away 24.5%
total
over_0.5 60.6% under_0.5 39.5% over_1.5 23.8%
under_1.5 76.1% over_2.5 6.8% under_2.5 93.2%
btts
yes 13.8% no 86.2%
total_exact
exact_0 39.5% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 17.1%
exact_3 5.3% exact_4plus 1.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.8% draw 41.4% away 20.7%
total
over_0.5 69.7% under_0.5 30.3% over_1.5 33.5%
under_1.5 66.5% over_2.5 11.9% under_2.5 88.1%
btts
yes 19.2% no 80.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.4% H/D 3.7% H/A 0.9%
D/H 18.3% D/D 20.1% D/A 10.0%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.5% A/A 16.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 66.1% under_7.5 33.9% over_8.5 55.4%
under_8.5 44.6% over_9.5 44.8% under_9.5 55.2%
over_10.5 35.1% under_10.5 64.9% over_11.5 26.6%
under_11.5 73.4% over_12.5 19.5% under_12.5 80.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.8% under_3.5 32.2% over_4.5 53.7%
under_4.5 46.3% over_5.5 40.5% under_5.5 59.5%
team_away
over_3.5 54.8% under_3.5 45.2% over_4.5 39.6%
under_4.5 60.4% over_5.5 27.0% under_5.5 73.0%
most
home 54.4% draw 9.9% away 35.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.1% away_+3.5 73.9% home_-1.5 44.3%
away_+1.5 55.7% home_-0.5 54.4% away_+0.5 45.6%
home_+0.5 64.3% away_-0.5 35.7% home_+1.5 73.3%
away_-1.5 26.7% home_+3.5 86.9% away_-3.5 13.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.3% under_22.5 40.7% over_24.5 47.2%
under_24.5 52.8% over_26.5 35.7% under_26.5 64.3%
over_28.5 25.6% under_28.5 74.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.8% under_10.5 31.2% over_12.5 52.7%
under_12.5 47.3% over_14.5 37.2% under_14.5 62.8%
team_away
over_10.5 52.7% under_10.5 47.3% over_12.5 35.6%
under_12.5 64.5% over_14.5 21.9% under_14.5 78.1%
most
home 59.0% draw 5.9% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.9% away_+4.5 65.1% home_-2.5 46.8%
away_+2.5 53.2% home_-0.5 59.0% away_+0.5 41.0%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2% home_+2.5 75.4%
away_-2.5 24.6% home_+4.5 84.0% away_-4.5 16.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 60.9% under_6.5 39.1% over_7.5 48.9%
under_7.5 51.1% over_8.5 37.7% under_8.5 62.3%
over_9.5 28.0% under_9.5 72.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 55.3% under_3.5 44.7% over_4.5 39.6%
under_4.5 60.4% over_5.5 26.7% under_5.5 73.3%
team_away
over_3.5 45.5% under_3.5 54.5% over_4.5 30.0%
under_4.5 70.0% over_5.5 18.6% under_5.5 81.4%
most
home 50.6% draw 12.3% away 37.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.6% away_+2.5 72.4% home_-0.5 50.6%
away_+0.5 49.4% home_+0.5 62.9% away_-0.5 37.1%
home_+2.5 82.8% away_-2.5 17.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 67.0% under_2.5 33.0% over_3.5 45.9%
under_3.5 54.1% over_4.5 27.5% under_4.5 72.5%
over_5.5 14.6% under_5.5 85.4%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 50.1% under_1.5 49.9% over_2.5 24.5%
under_2.5 75.5%
team_away
over_1.5 52.8% under_1.5 47.2% over_2.5 26.9%
under_2.5 73.2%
most
home 37.2% draw 22.0% away 40.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.2% away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 37.2%
away_+0.5 62.8% home_+0.5 59.2% away_-0.5 40.8%
home_+1.5 78.1% away_-1.5 21.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 79.2% under_20.5 20.8% over_22.5 67.8%
under_22.5 32.2% over_24.5 55.0% under_24.5 45.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.6% under_9.5 24.4% over_11.5 57.7%
under_11.5 42.3% over_13.5 39.4% under_13.5 60.6%
team_away
over_9.5 77.7% under_9.5 22.3% over_11.5 60.5%
under_11.5 39.5% over_13.5 42.3% under_13.5 57.7%
most
home 44.7% draw 6.6% away 48.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.4% away_+3.5 73.6% home_-0.5 44.7%
away_+0.5 55.4% home_+2.5 64.2% away_-2.5 35.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.6% no 89.4%
home
yes 3.7% no 96.3%
away
yes 7.2% no 92.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Cagliari predictions · Lecce predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Serie ACagliariLecceTrack record