Premier League
Ipswich vs 
Sunderland Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Sunderland are favoured at 38.7%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ipswich vs Sunderland. Slightly more cards are projected for Sunderland for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
On the result, Sunderland are favoured at 38.7%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Sunderland to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
How many cards in Ipswich vs Sunderland?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.3% for Ipswich vs Sunderland.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.