Premier League
Ipswich vs 
Liverpool Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Draw or Liverpool (76.6%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Draw or Away at 76.6%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Liverpool are favoured at 53.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ipswich by 1 | 14.4% |
| Ipswich by 2 | 6.9% |
| Ipswich by 3+ | 3.2% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 22.2% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 15.9% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 13.5% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
Goal handicap
| Ipswich line | Ipswich | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 24.5% | 75.5% |
| +0.5 | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| +1.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| +2.5 | 86.5% | 13.5% |
Two of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is draw or Liverpool on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
59.6%Both Teams to Score
58.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Liverpool are favoured at 53.3%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ipswich 0 · 0 draws · Liverpool 2 · 3.5 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Draw or Away was the highest-probability cover at 76.6%; it landed, final score 0-2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.