2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs 
Heidenheim Cards
Result
Settled, final score 4-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 64.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 81.4% for over 2.5 to 28.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. Head to head on cards, Heidenheim are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 19.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 28.0% | 72.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.4%
35.5%
66.5%
39.9%
Card handicap
| Hertha line | Hertha | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.6% | 79.4% |
| -0.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| +0.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| +1.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.6% | 60.4% |
This season (2026/27)
5.0Hertha cards per game13.0Hertha fouls per game1.0Heidenheim cards per game6.0Heidenheim fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hertha vs Heidenheim. Slightly more cards are projected for Heidenheim for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
64.0%Over 3.5 cards14.3%Any red card62.4%Hertha over 1.5 cards66.5%Heidenheim over 1.5 cards54.0%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Hertha over 1.5 cards sits at 62.4% and Heidenheim at 66.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.3% (Hertha 10.8%, Heidenheim 4.0%). This season Hertha have averaged 5.0 cards a game and Heidenheim 1.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Hertha vs Heidenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.0% for Hertha vs Heidenheim.
Will there be a red card in Hertha vs Heidenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hertha vs Heidenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated Heidenheim to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.