Greuther Furth vs Nurnberg: model prediction
2. BundesligaOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Nurnberg
Greuther Furth or draw
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Nurnberg at 38.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 56.9% and it landed (6 goals). We called Yes at 60.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Greuther Furth and Nurnberg on 15 August 2026: Nurnberg nose ahead at 39%. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Nurnberg at 43%. Caution noted. • Totals sit close to the fence: 57% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. • Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Greuther Furth against W3 D3 L0 for Nurnberg. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Greuther Furth, 2 draws and 2 for Nurnberg over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.36, zone (0.45, 0.7))).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
35.8%+5.6%
25.6%-1.0%
38.7%-4.5%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.36, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Greuther Furth 1 · 2 draws · Nurnberg 2 · 3.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Greuther FurthNurnberg0.0%100.0%
100.0%0.0%
0.0%100.0%
League averages this season: 3.44 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 67%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 78.5% | Over 7.5 | 67.5% | Over 8.5 | 55.5% | Over 9.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Greuther Furth | 52.7% | Most: Nurnberg | 35.2% | ||||
| Greuther Furth Over 4.2 | 53.7% | Nurnberg Over 4.2 | 41.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 82.1% | Over 3.5 | 64.9% | Over 4.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Greuther Furth | 29.7% | Most: Nurnberg | 51.5% | ||
| Greuther Furth Over 1.8 | 57.3% | Nurnberg Over 1.8 | 71.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Greuther Furth clean sheet | 21.9% |
|---|---|
| Nurnberg clean sheet | 23.3% |
| Greuther Furth win to nil | 16.2% |
| Nurnberg win to nil | 17.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 35.8% | draw | 25.6% | away | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 61.3% | 12 | 74.4% | X2 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 48.1% | away | 51.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.3% | no | 39.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 22.0% | away | 23.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 16.3% | away | 17.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.7% | home_by_2 | 10.7% | home_by_3plus | 6.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.6% | away_by_2 | 11.6% | away_by_3plus | 7.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.7% | 0-1 | 7.2% | 0-2 | 5.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.0% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 6.9% | 1-1 | 11.9% | 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-3 | 4.3% | 1-4 | 1.6% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 5.4% | 2-1 | 8.2% | 2-2 | 6.2% |
| 2-3 | 3.1% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 2.6% | 3-1 | 4.0% | 3-2 | 3.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.5% | 3-4 | 0.6% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 1.4% | 4-2 | 1.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.3% | under_0.5 | 5.7% | over_1.5 | 80.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 19.9% | over_2.5 | 56.9% | under_2.5 | 43.1% |
| over_3.5 | 34.5% | under_3.5 | 65.5% | over_4.5 | 17.9% |
| under_4.5 | 82.1% | over_5.5 | 8.1% | under_5.5 | 92.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 76.5% | under_0.5 | 23.5% | over_1.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.5% | over_2.5 | 17.9% | under_2.5 | 82.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 78.0% | under_0.5 | 22.0% | over_1.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.3% | over_2.5 | 19.5% | under_2.5 | 80.5% |
most
| home | 35.8% | draw | 25.6% | away | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.4% | away_+2.5 | 93.6% | home_-1.5 | 17.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 83.0% | home_-0.5 | 35.8% | away_+0.5 | 64.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.4% | away_-0.5 | 38.7% | home_+1.5 | 81.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 19.1% | home_+2.5 | 92.6% | away_-2.5 | 7.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.7% | exact_1 | 14.1% | exact_2 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.6% | exact_5 | 9.9% |
| exact_6 | 4.9% | exact_7plus | 3.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.2% | draw | 38.6% | away | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.5% | under_0.5 | 25.5% | over_1.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.3% | over_2.5 | 15.9% | under_2.5 | 84.2% |
btts
| yes | 24.1% | no | 75.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.5% | exact_1 | 34.8% | exact_2 | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.9% | exact_4plus | 5.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.4% | draw | 35.2% | away | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.0% | under_0.5 | 20.0% | over_1.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.1% | over_2.5 | 22.0% | under_2.5 | 78.1% |
btts
| yes | 30.5% | no | 69.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.0% | H/D | 4.4% | H/A | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.3% | D/D | 13.6% | D/A | 11.7% |
| A/H | 3.1% | A/D | 6.5% | A/A | 26.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.8% | under_7.5 | 25.3% | over_8.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.5% | over_9.5 | 51.6% | under_9.5 | 48.4% |
| over_10.5 | 39.9% | under_10.5 | 60.1% | over_11.5 | 29.4% |
| under_11.5 | 70.6% | over_12.5 | 20.7% | under_12.5 | 79.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.6% | under_3.5 | 28.4% | over_4.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.2% | over_5.5 | 40.4% | under_5.5 | 59.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.1% | under_3.5 | 33.9% | over_4.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.6% | over_5.5 | 34.1% | under_5.5 | 65.9% |
most
| home | 48.8% | draw | 10.9% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.8% | away_+3.5 | 80.2% | home_-1.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 62.0% | home_-0.5 | 48.8% | away_+0.5 | 51.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.3% | home_+1.5 | 69.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 30.1% | home_+3.5 | 85.7% | away_-3.5 | 14.3% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 72.3% | under_22.5 | 27.7% | over_24.5 | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 39.7% | over_26.5 | 47.7% | under_26.5 | 52.3% |
| over_28.5 | 35.6% | under_28.5 | 64.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.2% | under_10.5 | 23.8% | over_12.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.1% | over_14.5 | 42.8% | under_14.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 65.5% | under_10.5 | 34.5% | over_12.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 52.9% | over_14.5 | 30.3% | under_14.5 | 69.7% |
most
| home | 55.9% | draw | 6.2% | away | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.1% | away_+4.5 | 68.9% | home_-2.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.9% | home_-0.5 | 55.9% | away_+0.5 | 44.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.1% | away_-0.5 | 37.9% | home_+2.5 | 73.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.5% | home_+4.5 | 82.9% | away_-4.5 | 17.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 78.5% | under_6.5 | 21.5% | over_7.5 | 67.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 32.5% | over_8.5 | 55.5% | under_8.5 | 44.6% |
| over_9.5 | 43.4% | under_9.5 | 56.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.3% | under_3.5 | 29.7% | over_4.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.3% | over_5.5 | 37.7% | under_5.5 | 62.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.0% | under_3.5 | 41.0% | over_4.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.0% | over_5.5 | 25.9% | under_5.5 | 74.1% |
most
| home | 52.7% | draw | 12.2% | away | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.0% | away_+2.5 | 71.0% | home_-0.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.3% | home_+0.5 | 64.8% | away_-0.5 | 35.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.2% | away_-2.5 | 15.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 82.1% | under_2.5 | 17.9% | over_3.5 | 64.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 35.1% | over_4.5 | 45.8% | under_4.5 | 54.2% |
| over_5.5 | 28.8% | under_5.5 | 71.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 57.3% | under_1.5 | 42.7% | over_2.5 | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.8% | under_1.5 | 28.2% | over_2.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.7% |
most
| home | 29.7% | draw | 18.9% | away | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.2% | away_+1.5 | 84.8% | home_-0.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.3% | home_+0.5 | 48.5% | away_-0.5 | 51.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 67.5% | away_-1.5 | 32.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 69.4% | under_20.5 | 30.6% | over_22.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 44.7% | over_24.5 | 40.9% | under_24.5 | 59.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 67.8% | under_9.5 | 32.2% | over_11.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.0% | over_13.5 | 28.2% | under_13.5 | 71.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 72.5% | under_9.5 | 27.5% | over_11.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.4% | over_13.5 | 33.3% | under_13.5 | 66.7% |
most
| home | 42.4% | draw | 7.3% | away | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.9% | away_+3.5 | 77.1% | home_-0.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.6% | home_+2.5 | 64.1% | away_-2.5 | 35.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 8.4% | no | 91.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.6% | no | 97.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.9% | no | 94.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Greuther Furth predictions · Nurnberg predictions · 2. Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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