2. Bundesliga
Hertha vs 
Heidenheim Shots
Result
Settled, final score 4-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 61.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.0% for over 22.5 to 36.4% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.6%. Head to head on shots, Hertha are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.0%, with a level count at 6.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 36.4% | 63.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.8%
61.9%
44.9%
64.7%
46.2%
29.5%
Shot handicap
| Hertha line | Hertha | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| -2.5 | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| -0.5 | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| +0.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 40.2% | 59.8% |
This season (2026/27)
11.0Hertha shots per game20.0Heidenheim shots per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Hertha.
In-depth analysis
61.2%Over 24.5 shots61.9%Hertha over 12.5 shots46.2%Heidenheim over 12.5 shots64.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Hertha over 12.5 shots sits at 61.9% and Heidenheim at 46.2%. This season Hertha have averaged 11.0 shots a game and Heidenheim 20.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Hertha vs Heidenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 61.2% for Hertha vs Heidenheim.
Which team will have more shots in Hertha vs Heidenheim?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hertha to take more shots at 58.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.