Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs 
Zwolle Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 31.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 53.7% for over 2.5 to 6.9% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.7%. On the card count, Zwolle are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 24.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 53.7% | 46.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 15.8% | 84.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 6.9% | 93.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
34.8%
12.8%
47.4%
21.8%
Card handicap
| Heerenveen line | Heerenveen | Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| -0.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| +0.5 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| +1.5 | 76.3% | 23.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 24.6% | 75.4% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Heerenveen vs Zwolle. The model leans toward Zwolle for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
31.5%Over 3.5 cards15.6%Any red card34.8%Heerenveen over 1.5 cards47.4%Zwolle over 1.5 cards37.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Heerenveen over 1.5 cards sits at 34.8% and Zwolle at 47.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.6% (Heerenveen 3.5%, Zwolle 12.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Heerenveen vs Zwolle?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 31.5% for Heerenveen vs Zwolle.
Will there be a red card in Heerenveen vs Zwolle?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Heerenveen vs Zwolle?
Before kickoff, the model rated Zwolle to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 24.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.