Ligue 2Guingamp vs Annecy Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 39.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 51.9% for over 22.5 to 18.4% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. On the shot count, Guingamp are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.9%, with a level count at 6.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 18.4% | 81.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
65.4%
47.7%
31.5%
47.1%
29.3%
16.3%
Shot handicap
| Guingamp line | Guingamp | Annecy |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.8% | 66.3% |
| -2.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| -0.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| +0.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 38.3% | 61.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 27.3% | 72.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
15.0Guingamp shots per game12.8Guingamp shots faced per game11.4Annecy shots per game14.4Annecy shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Guingamp.
In-depth analysis
39.1%Over 24.5 shots47.7%Guingamp over 12.5 shots29.3%Annecy over 12.5 shots50.8%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Guingamp over 12.5 shots sits at 47.7% and Annecy at 29.3%. This season Guingamp have averaged 15.0 shots a game and Annecy 11.4.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Guingamp vs Annecy?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 39.1% for Guingamp vs Annecy.
Which team will have more shots in Guingamp vs Annecy?
The model rates Guingamp to take more shots at 59.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,984 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.