Eredivisie
Groningen vs 
Twente Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 68.7% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 90.3% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 31.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 53.3% for over 2.5 to 6.9% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. Between the two sides, Twente are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 38.2%, with a level count at 25.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 15.8% | 84.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 6.9% | 93.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
40.5%
16.7%
41.5%
17.5%
Card handicap
| Groningen line | Groningen | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| -0.5 | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| +0.5 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| +1.5 | 81.9% | 18.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 18.3% | 81.7% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Groningen vs Twente. Slightly more cards are projected for Twente for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
31.3%Over 3.5 cards9.7%Any red card40.5%Groningen over 1.5 cards41.5%Twente over 1.5 cards29.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Groningen over 1.5 cards sits at 40.5% and Twente at 41.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.7% (Groningen 4.8%, Twente 5.2%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Groningen vs Twente?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 31.3% for Groningen vs Twente.
Will there be a red card in Groningen vs Twente?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Groningen vs Twente?
Before kickoff, the model rated Twente to pick up more cards at 38.2%, with a level count at 25.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.