League TwoGrimsby vs Bristol Rvs Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 46.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 59.0% for over 22.5 to 23.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.2%. On the shot count, Grimsby are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.8%, with a level count at 6.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 59.0% | 41.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.2% | 65.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.8% | 76.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.7%
52.6%
36.2%
52.3%
34.2%
20.0%
Shot handicap
| Grimsby line | Grimsby | Bristol Rvs |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| -2.5 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| -0.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| +0.5 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.2% | 70.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
16.0Grimsby shots per game11.0Grimsby shots faced per game20.4Bristol Rvs shots per game10.4Bristol Rvs shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Grimsby.
In-depth analysis
46.2%Over 24.5 shots52.6%Grimsby over 12.5 shots34.2%Bristol Rvs over 12.5 shots52.6%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Grimsby over 12.5 shots sits at 52.6% and Bristol Rvs at 34.2%. This season Grimsby have averaged 16.0 shots a game and Bristol Rvs 20.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 46.2% for Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs.
Which team will have more shots in Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates Grimsby to take more shots at 59.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.