League TwoGillingham vs Bristol Rvs Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 58.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.8% for over 2.5 to 23.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.8%. Head to head on cards, Bristol Rvs are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 20.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.3% | 76.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
56.8%
29.8%
64.8%
38.0%
Card handicap
| Gillingham line | Gillingham | Bristol Rvs |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.9% | 82.1% |
| -0.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| +0.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| +1.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.1% | 60.9% |
This season (2026/27)
2.3Gillingham cards per game11.5Gillingham fouls per game2.3Bristol Rvs cards per game11.7Bristol Rvs fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs. Slightly more cards are projected for Bristol Rvs for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
58.8%Over 3.5 cards18.8%Any red card56.8%Gillingham over 1.5 cards64.8%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards54.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Gillingham over 1.5 cards sits at 56.8% and Bristol Rvs at 64.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.8% (Gillingham 5.4%, Bristol Rvs 14.2%). This season Gillingham have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Bristol Rvs 2.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 58.8% for Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs.
Will there be a red card in Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates Bristol Rvs to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 20.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
