League TwoGillingham vs Bristol Rvs Shots
Result
Settled, final score 3-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 45.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 58.6% for over 22.5 to 23.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.8%. Between the two sides, Gillingham are the model’s pick to have more shots at 54.2%, with a level count at 6.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.5% | 76.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.0%
48.4%
32.2%
56.1%
37.9%
23.1%
Shot handicap
| Gillingham line | Gillingham | Bristol Rvs |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| -2.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| -0.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| +0.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.4% | 70.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
11.7Gillingham shots per game14.2Gillingham shots faced per game17.5Bristol Rvs shots per game10.0Bristol Rvs shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Gillingham.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
45.8%Over 24.5 shots48.4%Gillingham over 12.5 shots37.9%Bristol Rvs over 12.5 shots52.8%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Gillingham over 12.5 shots sits at 48.4% and Bristol Rvs at 37.9%. This season Gillingham have averaged 11.7 shots a game and Bristol Rvs 17.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 45.8% for Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs.
Which team will have more shots in Gillingham vs Bristol Rvs?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gillingham to take more shots at 54.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
