Getafe vs Santander: model prediction
La LigaGetafe or draw
Under 2.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Getafe at 49.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 64.4% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 59.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Getafe: 49% is the model's line for this La Liga meeting on 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Our number sits above the market's 44% for Getafe. The gap itself is information. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 36% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 41%. • As a promoted side, Santander carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • For shots markets, Alvaro Rodríguez is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Getafe arrive W2 D1 L3, Santander W0 D1 L0. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
49.0%+5.5%
29.3%-3.3%
21.7%-2.2%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Getafe
SantanderPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 11.36
@ 2.75
@ 3.17
@ ·
@ 3.38
@ 5.00
@ 20.83
@ 3.52
@ 6.25
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.3% | Over 7.5 | 53.1% | Over 8.5 | 40.1% | Over 9.5 | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Getafe | 53.2% | Most: Santander | 33.7% | ||||
| Getafe Over 4.2 | 43.5% | Santander Over 4.2 | 29.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 86.5% | Over 3.5 | 72.2% | Over 4.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Getafe | 40.7% | Most: Santander | 41.2% | ||
| Getafe Over 1.8 | 69.9% | Santander Over 1.8 | 70.2% |
Getafe: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Rodríguez | 2.71 | 1.08 | 0.22 | 36.4% | 31.5% | 8.8% |
| Javi Muñoz | 2.39 | 1.02 | 0 | 29.6% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Juanmi | 1.58 | 0.74 | 0.11 | 28.4% | 16.0% | 4.8% |
| Martín Satriano | 1.96 | 0.73 | 0.34 | 51.6% | 57.9% | 28.7% |
| Borja Mayoral | 1.47 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 32.8% | 21.7% | 20.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Getafe clean sheet | 45.0% |
|---|---|
| Santander clean sheet | 26.6% |
| Getafe win to nil | 32.4% |
| Santander win to nil | 13.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 48.5% | draw | 29.7% | away | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 78.2% | 12 | 70.4% | X2 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 69.0% | away | 31.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 40.9% | no | 59.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 45.1% | away | 26.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 32.5% | away | 14.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 25.2% | home_by_2 | 14.8% | home_by_3plus | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.9% | away_by_2 | 5.3% | away_by_3plus | 1.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 12.6% | 0-1 | 8.9% | 0-2 | 3.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 15.3% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 5.0% |
| 1-3 | 1.3% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 10.5% | 2-1 | 8.4% | 2-2 | 3.3% |
| 2-3 | 0.9% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 4.7% | 3-1 | 3.7% | 3-2 | 1.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.4% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 4-1 | 1.2% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 87.4% | under_0.5 | 12.6% | over_1.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 36.8% | over_2.5 | 35.6% | under_2.5 | 64.4% |
| over_3.5 | 16.6% | under_3.5 | 83.4% | over_4.5 | 6.4% |
| under_4.5 | 93.6% | over_5.5 | 2.1% | under_5.5 | 97.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.0% | even | 52.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 73.4% | under_0.5 | 26.6% | over_1.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.8% | over_2.5 | 14.9% | under_2.5 | 85.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 54.9% | under_0.5 | 45.1% | over_1.5 | 19.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 81.0% | over_2.5 | 4.7% | under_2.5 | 95.3% |
most
| home | 48.5% | draw | 29.7% | away | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.5% | away_+2.5 | 91.5% | home_-1.5 | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 76.7% | home_-0.5 | 48.5% | away_+0.5 | 51.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 78.2% | away_-0.5 | 21.8% | home_+1.5 | 93.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.9% | home_+2.5 | 98.4% | away_-2.5 | 1.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 12.6% | exact_1 | 24.2% | exact_2 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 19.1% | exact_4 | 10.1% | exact_5 | 4.3% |
| exact_6 | 1.5% | exact_7plus | 0.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.2% | draw | 42.4% | away | 22.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.7% | under_0.5 | 31.3% | over_1.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.7% | over_2.5 | 11.2% | under_2.5 | 88.8% |
btts
| yes | 18.9% | no | 81.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.3% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.2% | exact_4plus | 3.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.7% | draw | 46.5% | away | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 63.4% | under_0.5 | 36.6% | over_1.5 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.4% | over_2.5 | 8.1% | under_2.5 | 91.9% |
btts
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 28.0% | H/D | 5.6% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.3% | D/D | 19.7% | D/A | 11.4% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 17.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 68.8% | under_7.5 | 31.2% | over_8.5 | 56.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 43.5% | over_9.5 | 44.1% | under_9.5 | 55.9% |
| over_10.5 | 32.7% | under_10.5 | 67.4% | over_11.5 | 23.0% |
| under_11.5 | 77.0% | over_12.5 | 15.4% | under_12.5 | 84.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.6% | under_3.5 | 28.4% | over_4.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.2% | over_5.5 | 40.4% | under_5.5 | 59.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.3% | under_3.5 | 43.7% | over_4.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.1% | over_5.5 | 24.6% | under_5.5 | 75.4% |
most
| home | 55.6% | draw | 10.9% | away | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-1.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.7% | home_-0.5 | 55.6% | away_+0.5 | 44.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.5% | home_+1.5 | 76.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.9% | home_+3.5 | 89.9% | away_-3.5 | 10.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 54.0% | under_22.5 | 46.0% | over_24.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 58.8% | over_26.5 | 29.7% | under_26.5 | 70.3% |
| over_28.5 | 20.1% | under_28.5 | 80.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 67.9% | under_10.5 | 32.1% | over_12.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 49.3% | over_14.5 | 34.4% | under_14.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.8% | under_10.5 | 53.2% | over_12.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.8% | over_14.5 | 16.3% | under_14.5 | 83.7% |
most
| home | 62.0% | draw | 6.1% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.2% | away_+4.5 | 63.8% | home_-2.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.0% | home_-0.5 | 62.0% | away_+0.5 | 38.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.2% | away_-0.5 | 31.8% | home_+2.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.1% | home_+4.5 | 87.2% | away_-4.5 | 12.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.3% | under_6.5 | 33.7% | over_7.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.9% | over_8.5 | 40.2% | under_8.5 | 59.9% |
| over_9.5 | 28.7% | under_9.5 | 71.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.4% | under_3.5 | 38.6% | over_4.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.5% | over_5.5 | 28.1% | under_5.5 | 71.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.6% | under_3.5 | 52.4% | over_4.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.2% | over_5.5 | 16.8% | under_5.5 | 83.2% |
most
| home | 53.2% | draw | 13.2% | away | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.5% | away_+2.5 | 72.5% | home_-0.5 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.9% | home_+0.5 | 66.3% | away_-0.5 | 33.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.4% | away_-2.5 | 13.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 86.5% | under_2.5 | 13.5% | over_3.5 | 72.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 27.8% | over_4.5 | 54.8% | under_4.5 | 45.2% |
| over_5.5 | 37.7% | under_5.5 | 62.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 69.9% | under_1.5 | 30.1% | over_2.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.2% | under_1.5 | 29.8% | over_2.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.0% |
most
| home | 40.7% | draw | 18.1% | away | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 24.5% | away_+1.5 | 75.5% | home_-0.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.3% | home_+0.5 | 58.8% | away_-0.5 | 41.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.0% | away_-1.5 | 25.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 87.3% | under_20.5 | 12.7% | over_22.5 | 78.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 21.7% | over_24.5 | 66.7% | under_24.5 | 33.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 83.6% | under_9.5 | 16.4% | over_11.5 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.1% | over_13.5 | 49.4% | under_13.5 | 50.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 83.2% | under_9.5 | 16.8% | over_11.5 | 67.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.7% | over_13.5 | 48.7% | under_13.5 | 51.3% |
most
| home | 47.1% | draw | 6.7% | away | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.3% | away_+3.5 | 71.7% | home_-0.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.9% | home_+2.5 | 66.7% | away_-2.5 | 33.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 25.6% | no | 74.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 16.2% | no | 83.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 11.2% | no | 88.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Getafe predictions · Santander predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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