Ath Madrid vs Villarreal: model prediction
La LigaOver 1.5 goals
Ath Madrid or draw
Both teams to score
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Ath Madrid at 50.7%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 58.9% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 60.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The model leans Ath Madrid at 51% when Ath Madrid host Villarreal in the La Liga on 23 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market broadly agrees, pricing Ath Madrid at 52%. 2) No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Ath Madrid, 2 draws and 1 for Villarreal at 3.4 goals per match. Conditions could matter: the forecast says 33 degrees of heat. Fatigue may matter, with Ath Madrid 4 days shorter on recovery than Villarreal. Form guide over the last six: Ath Madrid W4 D0 L2, Villarreal W2 D2 L2. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.012 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
50.7%-1.0%
23.6%-2.2%
25.7%+3.2%
conservative EV -0.012 <= 0
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ath Madrid 2 · 2 draws · Villarreal 1 · 3.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Ath Madrid
VillarrealPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 3.09
@ 1.64
@ 1.68
@ 2.82
@ 1.87
@ 1.85
@ 3.44
@ 2.01
@ 2.02
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.5% | Over 7.5 | 60.2% | Over 8.5 | 47.5% | Over 9.5 | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ath Madrid | 64.0% | Most: Villarreal | 24.5% | ||||
| Ath Madrid Over 4.2 | 55.9% | Villarreal Over 4.2 | 26.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 78.5% | Over 3.5 | 60.2% | Over 4.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ath Madrid | 37.0% | Most: Villarreal | 43.2% | ||
| Ath Madrid Over 1.8 | 59.4% | Villarreal Over 1.8 | 63.6% |
Villarreal: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georges Mikautadze | 2.76 | 1.29 | 0.54 | 60.8% | 59.5% | 32.4% |
| Ayoze Pérez | 2.87 | 1.21 | 0.69 | 53.5% | 54.2% | 35.4% |
| Gerard Moreno | 2.85 | 1.18 | 0.59 | 49.7% | 49.4% | 29.1% |
| Nicolas Pepe | 2.31 | 1.02 | 0.27 | 50.5% | 47.2% | 17.0% |
| Thierno Barry | 2.83 | 0.97 | 0.43 | 51.1% | 61.7% | 27.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Ath Madrid clean sheet | 28.3% |
|---|---|
| Villarreal clean sheet | 16.5% |
| Ath Madrid win to nil | 23.0% |
| Villarreal win to nil | 11.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 49.8% | draw | 24.2% | away | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 74.0% | 12 | 75.9% | X2 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 65.6% | away | 34.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.2% | no | 39.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.6% | away | 16.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.3% | away | 11.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.9% | home_by_2 | 15.3% | home_by_3plus | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.1% | away_by_2 | 7.4% | away_by_3plus | 3.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.3% | 0-1 | 5.4% | 0-2 | 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.5% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 1-1 | 11.2% | 1-2 | 6.7% |
| 1-3 | 2.8% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 2-1 | 9.6% | 2-2 | 6.0% |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 4.6% | 3-1 | 5.8% | 3-2 | 3.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.5% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.1% | 4-1 | 2.6% | 4-2 | 1.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.8% | 5-1 | 0.9% | 5-2 | 0.6% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.8% | under_0.5 | 5.3% | over_1.5 | 81.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 18.6% | over_2.5 | 58.9% | under_2.5 | 41.1% |
| over_3.5 | 36.5% | under_3.5 | 63.5% | over_4.5 | 19.4% |
| under_4.5 | 80.6% | over_5.5 | 9.0% | under_5.5 | 91.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 83.5% | under_0.5 | 16.5% | over_1.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 46.2% | over_2.5 | 27.0% | under_2.5 | 73.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.4% | under_0.5 | 28.6% | over_1.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.4% | over_2.5 | 13.2% | under_2.5 | 86.8% |
most
| home | 49.8% | draw | 24.2% | away | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 12.6% | away_+2.5 | 87.5% | home_-1.5 | 27.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 72.1% | home_-0.5 | 49.8% | away_+0.5 | 50.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.9% | away_-0.5 | 26.1% | home_+1.5 | 89.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.0% | home_+2.5 | 96.4% | away_-2.5 | 3.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.3% | exact_1 | 13.3% | exact_2 | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 17.1% | exact_5 | 10.5% |
| exact_6 | 5.3% | exact_7plus | 3.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.1% | draw | 34.3% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.2% | under_0.5 | 18.8% | over_1.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.2% | over_2.5 | 23.6% | under_2.5 | 76.4% |
btts
| yes | 32.0% | no | 68.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 18.8% | exact_1 | 31.4% | exact_2 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 14.6% | exact_4plus | 8.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 44.2% | draw | 35.7% | away | 20.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.3% | under_0.5 | 22.7% | over_1.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.4% | over_2.5 | 18.7% | under_2.5 | 81.3% |
btts
| yes | 25.4% | no | 74.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 31.0% | H/D | 4.0% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.2% | D/D | 12.3% | D/A | 6.9% |
| A/H | 3.8% | A/D | 6.5% | A/A | 19.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 73.6% | under_7.5 | 26.4% | over_8.5 | 62.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.9% | over_9.5 | 50.0% | under_9.5 | 50.0% |
| over_10.5 | 38.3% | under_10.5 | 61.7% | over_11.5 | 27.9% |
| under_11.5 | 72.1% | over_12.5 | 19.4% | under_12.5 | 80.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.8% | under_3.5 | 22.2% | over_4.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.4% | over_5.5 | 48.7% | under_5.5 | 51.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.2% | under_3.5 | 44.8% | over_4.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.3% | over_5.5 | 23.7% | under_5.5 | 76.4% |
most
| home | 61.8% | draw | 10.0% | away | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.2% | away_+3.5 | 69.8% | home_-1.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 49.0% | home_-0.5 | 61.8% | away_+0.5 | 38.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.8% | away_-0.5 | 28.2% | home_+1.5 | 80.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 19.7% | home_+3.5 | 92.0% | away_-3.5 | 8.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.1% | under_22.5 | 39.9% | over_24.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.6% | over_26.5 | 35.3% | under_26.5 | 64.7% |
| over_28.5 | 24.7% | under_28.5 | 75.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.5% | under_10.5 | 24.5% | over_12.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 40.1% | over_14.5 | 43.6% | under_14.5 | 56.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 45.5% | under_10.5 | 54.5% | over_12.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 72.0% | over_14.5 | 15.4% | under_14.5 | 84.6% |
most
| home | 69.0% | draw | 5.5% | away | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 44.0% | away_+4.5 | 56.0% | home_-2.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 43.1% | home_-0.5 | 69.0% | away_+0.5 | 31.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.5% | away_-0.5 | 25.5% | home_+2.5 | 83.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 16.3% | home_+4.5 | 90.4% | away_-4.5 | 9.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.5% | under_6.5 | 27.5% | over_7.5 | 60.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.8% | over_8.5 | 47.5% | under_8.5 | 52.5% |
| over_9.5 | 35.5% | under_9.5 | 64.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.2% | under_3.5 | 27.8% | over_4.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.1% | over_5.5 | 39.9% | under_5.5 | 60.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.3% | under_3.5 | 55.7% | over_4.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.1% | over_5.5 | 14.6% | under_5.5 | 85.4% |
most
| home | 64.0% | draw | 11.5% | away | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 38.5% | away_+2.5 | 61.5% | home_-0.5 | 64.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 36.0% | home_+0.5 | 75.5% | away_-0.5 | 24.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 91.1% | away_-2.5 | 8.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 78.5% | under_2.5 | 21.5% | over_3.5 | 60.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 39.8% | over_4.5 | 41.2% | under_4.5 | 58.8% |
| over_5.5 | 25.2% | under_5.5 | 74.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 59.4% | under_1.5 | 40.6% | over_2.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.6% | under_1.5 | 36.4% | over_2.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.7% |
most
| home | 37.0% | draw | 19.8% | away | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.4% | away_+1.5 | 79.6% | home_-0.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.0% | home_+0.5 | 56.8% | away_-0.5 | 43.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.8% | away_-1.5 | 25.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 66.3% | under_20.5 | 33.7% | over_22.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 48.1% | over_24.5 | 37.7% | under_24.5 | 62.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 70.2% | under_9.5 | 29.8% | over_11.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 50.0% | over_13.5 | 31.1% | under_13.5 | 69.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.7% | under_9.5 | 34.3% | over_11.5 | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 55.2% | over_13.5 | 26.5% | under_13.5 | 73.5% |
most
| home | 50.0% | draw | 7.3% | away | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.0% | away_+3.5 | 71.0% | home_-0.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.0% | home_+2.5 | 71.0% | away_-2.5 | 29.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.9% | no | 88.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.7% | no | 92.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Ath Madrid predictions · Villarreal predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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