Pro League
Genk vs 
Beveren Shots
Result
Settled, final score 4-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 60.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.9% for over 22.5 to 37.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. Head to head on shots, Genk are the model’s pick to have more shots at 67.1%, with a level count at 5.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 37.7% | 62.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.8%
67.4%
52.4%
56.3%
38.9%
24.5%
Shot handicap
| Genk line | Genk | Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| -2.5 | 55.8% | 44.3% |
| -0.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| +0.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 79.1% | 20.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 45.4% | 54.6% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Genk.
In-depth analysis
60.9%Over 24.5 shots67.4%Genk over 12.5 shots38.9%Beveren over 12.5 shots68.6%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Genk over 12.5 shots sits at 67.4% and Beveren at 38.9%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Genk vs Beveren?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 60.9% for Genk vs Beveren.
Which team will have more shots in Genk vs Beveren?
Before kickoff, the model rated Genk to take more shots at 67.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.