Wrexham vs Birmingham: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Wrexham or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Wrexham at 41.2%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 51.8% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 53.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Wrexham and Birmingham on 28 August 2026: Wrexham nose ahead at 41%. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Wrexham higher (44%) than our model does. • Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. • Form guide over the last six: Wrexham W2 D3 L1, Birmingham W2 D4 L0. • The recent series reads 0 wins for Wrexham, 1 draws and 1 for Birmingham over 2 games, 2.0 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.015 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
41.2%-3.1%
27.5%+0.1%
31.4%+3.1%
conservative EV -0.015 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Wrexham 0 · 1 draws · Birmingham 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.88 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 79%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.3% | Over 7.5 | 52.2% | Over 8.5 | 39.6% | Over 9.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Wrexham | 54.5% | Most: Birmingham | 32.6% | ||||
| Wrexham Over 4.2 | 44.0% | Birmingham Over 4.2 | 28.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 65.8% | Over 3.5 | 44.0% | Over 4.5 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Wrexham | 30.0% | Most: Birmingham | 47.8% | ||
| Wrexham Over 1.8 | 43.6% | Birmingham Over 1.8 | 56.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Wrexham clean sheet | 30.2% |
|---|---|
| Birmingham clean sheet | 24.5% |
| Wrexham win to nil | 22.1% |
| Birmingham win to nil | 16.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 41.2% | draw | 27.5% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 68.6% | 12 | 72.6% | X2 | 58.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 56.7% | away | 43.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.2% | no | 46.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.3% | away | 24.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 22.2% | away | 16.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.4% | home_by_2 | 12.4% | home_by_3plus | 7.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.1% | away_by_2 | 9.0% | away_by_3plus | 4.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 0-1 | 8.3% | 0-2 | 5.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.1% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | 1-1 | 13.1% | 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 1-3 | 3.0% | 1-4 | 0.9% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 2-1 | 8.8% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.4% | 3-1 | 4.1% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.2% | 4-1 | 1.4% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.0% | under_0.5 | 8.1% | over_1.5 | 73.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.1% | over_2.5 | 48.2% | under_2.5 | 51.8% |
| over_3.5 | 26.4% | under_3.5 | 73.6% | over_4.5 | 12.3% |
| under_4.5 | 87.7% | over_5.5 | 4.9% | under_5.5 | 95.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 75.4% | under_0.5 | 24.6% | over_1.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.0% | over_2.5 | 16.8% | under_2.5 | 83.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.8% | under_0.5 | 30.3% | over_1.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.4% | over_2.5 | 12.0% | under_2.5 | 88.0% |
most
| home | 41.2% | draw | 27.5% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.4% | away_+2.5 | 92.6% | home_-1.5 | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 80.2% | home_-0.5 | 41.2% | away_+0.5 | 58.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.4% | home_+1.5 | 86.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 13.3% | home_+2.5 | 95.7% | away_-2.5 | 4.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.1% | exact_1 | 18.1% | exact_2 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.8% | exact_4 | 14.1% | exact_5 | 7.4% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.3% | draw | 35.8% | away | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.0% | under_0.5 | 22.0% | over_1.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.3% | over_2.5 | 19.5% | under_2.5 | 80.5% |
btts
| yes | 27.0% | no | 73.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 22.0% | exact_1 | 33.3% | exact_2 | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.7% | exact_4plus | 6.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.2% | draw | 43.0% | away | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.4% | under_0.5 | 31.6% | over_1.5 | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.0% | over_2.5 | 11.0% | under_2.5 | 89.0% |
btts
| yes | 19.2% | no | 80.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.0% | H/D | 6.3% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.1% | D/D | 15.4% | D/A | 10.3% |
| A/H | 1.3% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 17.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.6% | under_7.5 | 22.4% | over_8.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.1% | over_9.5 | 55.2% | under_9.5 | 44.8% |
| over_10.5 | 43.5% | under_10.5 | 56.5% | over_11.5 | 32.7% |
| under_11.5 | 67.3% | over_12.5 | 23.4% | under_12.5 | 76.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.1% | under_3.5 | 23.9% | over_4.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.6% | over_5.5 | 46.1% | under_5.5 | 53.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.3% | under_3.5 | 34.7% | over_4.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.6% | over_5.5 | 33.0% | under_5.5 | 67.0% |
most
| home | 53.4% | draw | 10.5% | away | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.6% | away_+3.5 | 76.4% | home_-1.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.3% | home_-0.5 | 53.4% | away_+0.5 | 46.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.0% | away_-0.5 | 36.0% | home_+1.5 | 73.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.4% | home_+3.5 | 87.9% | away_-3.5 | 12.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.0% | under_22.5 | 41.0% | over_24.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.7% | over_26.5 | 34.3% | under_26.5 | 65.7% |
| over_28.5 | 24.0% | under_28.5 | 76.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.3% | under_10.5 | 28.7% | over_12.5 | 54.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.3% | over_14.5 | 38.3% | under_14.5 | 61.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.0% | under_10.5 | 50.0% | over_12.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.9% | over_14.5 | 18.5% | under_14.5 | 81.5% |
most
| home | 62.7% | draw | 6.0% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.3% | away_+4.5 | 62.7% | home_-2.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.0% | home_-0.5 | 62.7% | away_+0.5 | 37.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.4% | home_+2.5 | 79.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 20.9% | home_+4.5 | 87.1% | away_-4.5 | 12.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.3% | under_6.5 | 34.7% | over_7.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.8% | over_8.5 | 39.6% | under_8.5 | 60.5% |
| over_9.5 | 28.4% | under_9.5 | 71.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.5% | under_3.5 | 38.5% | over_4.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.0% | over_5.5 | 28.8% | under_5.5 | 71.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.8% | under_3.5 | 54.2% | over_4.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.6% | over_5.5 | 16.0% | under_5.5 | 84.0% |
most
| home | 54.5% | draw | 12.9% | away | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.0% | away_+2.5 | 71.0% | home_-0.5 | 54.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.5% | home_+0.5 | 67.4% | away_-0.5 | 32.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.9% | away_-2.5 | 13.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 65.9% | under_2.5 | 34.2% | over_3.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 56.0% | over_4.5 | 25.4% | under_4.5 | 74.6% |
| over_5.5 | 12.8% | under_5.5 | 87.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 43.6% | under_1.5 | 56.4% | over_2.5 | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 81.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 56.9% | under_1.5 | 43.1% | over_2.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.1% |
most
| home | 30.0% | draw | 22.2% | away | 47.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.8% | away_+1.5 | 86.2% | home_-0.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.0% | home_+0.5 | 52.2% | away_-0.5 | 47.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.2% | away_-1.5 | 26.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 53.1% | under_20.5 | 46.9% | over_22.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 62.7% | over_24.5 | 23.9% | under_24.5 | 76.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 53.4% | under_9.5 | 46.6% | over_11.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 68.8% | over_13.5 | 15.2% | under_13.5 | 84.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.2% | under_9.5 | 34.8% | over_11.5 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.9% | over_13.5 | 24.1% | under_13.5 | 75.9% |
most
| home | 37.4% | draw | 8.0% | away | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.6% | away_+3.5 | 82.4% | home_-0.5 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.6% | home_+2.5 | 61.5% | away_-2.5 | 38.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 7.3% | no | 92.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.8% | no | 97.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Wrexham predictions · Birmingham predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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