Süper Lig
Gaziantep vs 
Alanyaspor Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 73.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.4% for over 2.5 to 38.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. Between the two sides, Alanyaspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 18.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.4% | 12.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 38.0% | 62.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
67.3%
40.8%
74.5%
49.7%
Card handicap
| Gaziantep line | Gaziantep | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| -0.5 | 34.8% | 65.1% |
| +0.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| +1.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 68.0% | 32.0% |
This season (2025/26)
2.9Gaziantep cards per game13.2Gaziantep fouls per game2.4Alanyaspor cards per game12.2Alanyaspor fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gaziantep vs Alanyaspor. Slightly more cards are projected for Alanyaspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
73.2%Over 3.5 cards10.8%Any red card67.3%Gaziantep over 1.5 cards74.5%Alanyaspor over 1.5 cards80.1%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Gaziantep over 1.5 cards sits at 67.3% and Alanyaspor at 74.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.8% (Gaziantep 6.6%, Alanyaspor 4.5%). This season Gaziantep have averaged 2.9 cards a game and Alanyaspor 2.4.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Gaziantep vs Alanyaspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 73.2% for Gaziantep vs Alanyaspor.
Will there be a red card in Gaziantep vs Alanyaspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gaziantep vs Alanyaspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated Alanyaspor to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.