League TwoFleetwood Town vs Oldham Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 53.2% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 87.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 53.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.5% for over 2.5 to 18.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.2%. Head to head on cards, Fleetwood Town are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 21.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.8% | 81.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
57.2%
30.2%
56.8%
29.8%
Card handicap
| Fleetwood Town line | Fleetwood Town | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.5% | 78.6% |
| -0.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| +0.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| +1.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 42.5% | 57.5% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Fleetwood Town vs Oldham. The model leans toward Fleetwood Town for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.2%Over 3.5 cards12.2%Any red card57.2%Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards56.8%Oldham over 1.5 cards57.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards sits at 57.2% and Oldham at 56.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.2% (Fleetwood Town 3.6%, Oldham 8.9%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Fleetwood Town vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.2% for Fleetwood Town vs Oldham.
Will there be a red card in Fleetwood Town vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Fleetwood Town vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fleetwood Town to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.