Exeter vs Barnet prediction & probabilities (2026-09-01)

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Exeter vs Barnet: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 1 Sep 2026

League Two
Exeter

DLLWL

Full time1-1Tue, 1 Sep 202619:45UK
Barnet

WWWWD

Model’s top convictions

79%

Draw or Barnet

78%

Over 1.5 goals

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Exeter 1-1 Barnet
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Barnet at 54.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 53.7% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.9% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 54.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 71.7% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 53.8% and it missed (3 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 51.8% and it missed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 54.5% and it landed (19 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 50.8% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 89.7% and it landed.

Match data Exeter Barnet
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 1
Shots 9 10
Shots on target 5 4
Corners 1 2
Yellow cards 1 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 13 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BarnetWin probability
54.3%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Barnet78.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 1.5 goals77.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.28
Over 8.5 corners63.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.58

Model read

▾

"54% on Barnet is a measurement, not a promise." Barnet go into this League Two meeting with Exeter on 1 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 54%. Our number sits above the market's 51% for Barnet. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 4 wins for Exeter, 1 draws and 0 for Barnet over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. As a promoted side, Exeter carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Exeter W2 D1 L3, Barnet W5 D1 L0. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.023 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Exeter or draw45.7%@ 2.19
Over 10.5 corners42.1%@ 2.38
Over 11.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.4%@ 1.84
Over 2.5 goals53.7%@ 1.86
Over 9.5 corners52.4%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.67
0-1 correct score10.0%@ 9.99
1-2 correct score9.8%@ 10.18

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Exeter

21.4%-2.5%

Draw

24.3%-1.0%

Barnet

54.3%+3.5%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.023 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.553.7%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.4%

Good chance

Over 10.542.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.532.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersExeter48.8%Barnet40.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.3%

Good chance

Over 24.545.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.3%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.9%2.553.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.9%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ExeterDLLWL
BarnetWWWWD

Last 5 meetings: Exeter 4 · 1 draws · Barnet 0 · 3.2 goals/game.

2017-12-30Exeter 2-1 Barnet
2017-09-12Barnet 1-2 Exeter
2017-04-14Exeter 2-1 Barnet
2016-10-15Barnet 1-4 Exeter
2016-03-25Exeter 1-1 Barnet

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ExeterBarnet
League position#15 of 24#1 of 24
Record W-D-L1-0-22-1-0
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Exeter win3.804.67
Draw3.604.12
Barnet win1.861.84
Over 2.5 goals1.671.86
Under 2.5 goals2.152.16

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Exeter win4.68
Draw4.11
Barnet win1.84
Both teams to score1.84

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.86
Over 3.5 goals3.18
Exeter most4.68
Barnet most1.84

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.53
Over 9.5 corners1.86
Over 10.5 corners2.36
Exeter most2.05
Barnet most2.47

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.08
Over 4.5 cards3.44
Over 5.5 cards6.50
Exeter most2.64
Barnet most2.49

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.57
Over 7.5 SoT1.97
Over 8.5 SoT2.60
Over 9.5 SoT3.60
Exeter most2.14
Barnet most2.49

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.72
Over 24.5 shots2.20
Over 26.5 shots2.98
Over 28.5 shots4.29
Exeter most1.86
Barnet most2.50

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.40
Over 22.5 fouls1.77
Over 24.5 fouls2.42
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 63.7% Over 7.5 50.8% Over 8.5 38.5% Over 9.5 27.8%
Most: Exeter 46.7% Most: Barnet 40.1%
Exeter Over 4.2 37.8% Barnet Over 4.2 33.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.5% Over 3.5 48.2% Over 4.5 29.1%
Most: Exeter 37.9% Most: Barnet 40.1%
Exeter Over 1.8 52.7% Barnet Over 1.8 54.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Exeter clean sheet 16.8%
Barnet clean sheet 34.9%
Exeter win to nil 10.3%
Barnet win to nil 28.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 21.4% draw 24.3% away 54.3%
double_chance
1X 45.7% 12 75.7% X2 78.6%
dnb
home 28.3% away 71.7%
btts
yes 54.4% no 45.6%
clean_sheet
home 16.8% away 35.3%
win_to_nil
home 10.3% away 28.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 13.4% home_by_2 5.7% home_by_3plus 2.3%
away_by_1 23.4% away_by_2 16.8% away_by_3plus 14.1%
correct_score
0-0 6.5% 0-1 10.0% 0-2 9.4%
0-3 5.6% 0-4 2.5% 0-5 0.9%
1-0 5.6% 1-1 11.5% 1-2 9.8%
1-3 5.9% 1-4 2.6% 1-5 0.9%
2-0 3.2% 2-1 5.7% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 3.1% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 1.1% 3-1 2.0% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.5% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.5% under_0.5 6.5% over_1.5 77.9%
under_1.5 22.1% over_2.5 53.7% under_2.5 46.3%
over_3.5 31.5% under_3.5 68.5% over_4.5 15.7%
under_4.5 84.3% over_5.5 6.8% under_5.5 93.2%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 64.7% under_0.5 35.3% over_1.5 28.0%
under_1.5 72.0% over_2.5 8.8% under_2.5 91.2%
team_away
over_0.5 83.2% under_0.5 16.8% over_1.5 53.3%
under_1.5 46.7% over_2.5 26.6% under_2.5 73.4%
most
home 21.4% draw 24.3% away 54.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.3% away_+2.5 97.8% home_-1.5 8.0%
away_+1.5 92.0% home_-0.5 21.4% away_+0.5 78.6%
home_+0.5 45.7% away_-0.5 54.3% home_+1.5 69.1%
away_-1.5 30.9% home_+2.5 85.9% away_-2.5 14.1%
total_exact
exact_0 6.5% exact_1 15.6% exact_2 24.2%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.8% exact_5 8.9%
exact_6 4.2% exact_7plus 2.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.8% draw 38.0% away 35.2%
total
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.2%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
btts
yes 25.4% no 74.6%
total_exact
exact_0 24.4% exact_1 34.4% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 11.4% exact_4plus 5.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.8% draw 40.7% away 31.5%
total
over_0.5 71.7% under_0.5 28.3% over_1.5 36.0%
under_1.5 64.0% over_2.5 13.4% under_2.5 86.6%
btts
yes 21.9% no 78.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.1% H/D 4.9% H/A 1.8%
D/H 10.6% D/D 15.5% D/A 12.0%
A/H 1.8% A/D 5.5% A/A 27.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.1% under_7.5 23.9% over_8.5 65.4%
under_8.5 34.6% over_9.5 53.8% under_9.5 46.2%
over_10.5 42.3% under_10.5 57.7% over_11.5 31.8%
under_11.5 68.2% over_12.5 22.9% under_12.5 77.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.4% under_3.5 27.6% over_4.5 57.1%
under_4.5 42.9% over_5.5 41.9% under_5.5 58.1%
team_away
over_3.5 67.2% under_3.5 32.8% over_4.5 50.8%
under_4.5 49.2% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
most
home 48.9% draw 10.7% away 40.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.4% away_+3.5 79.6% home_-1.5 38.3%
away_+1.5 61.7% home_-0.5 48.9% away_+0.5 51.1%
home_+0.5 59.6% away_-0.5 40.5% home_+1.5 69.5%
away_-1.5 30.5% home_+3.5 85.2% away_-3.5 14.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.3% under_22.5 41.7% over_24.5 45.5%
under_24.5 54.5% over_26.5 33.6% under_26.5 66.4%
over_28.5 23.3% under_28.5 76.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.5% under_10.5 34.5% over_12.5 47.9%
under_12.5 52.1% over_14.5 31.7% under_14.5 68.3%
team_away
over_10.5 56.3% under_10.5 43.7% over_12.5 38.1%
under_12.5 61.9% over_14.5 23.2% under_14.5 76.8%
most
home 53.6% draw 6.4% away 40.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 28.8% away_+4.5 71.2% home_-2.5 40.7%
away_+2.5 59.3% home_-0.5 53.6% away_+0.5 46.4%
home_+0.5 60.0% away_-0.5 40.0% home_+2.5 71.9%
away_-2.5 28.1% home_+4.5 81.7% away_-4.5 18.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 63.7% under_6.5 36.3% over_7.5 50.8%
under_7.5 49.2% over_8.5 38.5% under_8.5 61.5%
over_9.5 27.8% under_9.5 72.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 55.1% under_3.5 44.9% over_4.5 37.8%
under_4.5 62.2% over_5.5 23.9% under_5.5 76.1%
team_away
over_3.5 50.4% under_3.5 49.6% over_4.5 33.2%
under_4.5 66.8% over_5.5 20.1% under_5.5 79.9%
most
home 46.7% draw 13.1% away 40.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.1% away_+2.5 76.9% home_-0.5 46.7%
away_+0.5 53.3% home_+0.5 59.9% away_-0.5 40.1%
home_+2.5 81.8% away_-2.5 18.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.5% under_2.5 30.6% over_3.5 48.2%
under_3.5 51.8% over_4.5 29.1% under_4.5 70.9%
over_5.5 15.4% under_5.5 84.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.7% under_1.5 47.3% over_2.5 26.0%
under_2.5 74.0%
team_away
over_1.5 54.3% under_1.5 45.7% over_2.5 27.5%
under_2.5 72.6%
most
home 37.9% draw 22.0% away 40.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.6% away_+1.5 80.4% home_-0.5 37.9%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+0.5 59.9% away_-0.5 40.1%
home_+1.5 78.8% away_-1.5 21.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 71.2% under_20.5 28.8% over_22.5 56.5%
under_22.5 43.5% over_24.5 41.3% under_24.5 58.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 68.7% under_9.5 31.3% over_11.5 46.8%
under_11.5 53.2% over_13.5 27.0% under_13.5 73.0%
team_away
over_9.5 75.0% under_9.5 25.0% over_11.5 54.5%
under_11.5 45.5% over_13.5 34.0% under_13.5 66.0%
most
home 40.7% draw 7.7% away 51.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.7% away_+3.5 79.3% home_-0.5 40.7%
away_+0.5 59.3% home_+2.5 63.6% away_-2.5 36.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.3% no 89.7%
home
yes 3.4% no 96.6%
away
yes 7.1% no 92.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Exeter predictions · Barnet predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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League TwoExeterBarnetTrack record