Süper Lig
Eyupspor vs 
Alanyaspor Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Under 2.5 at 59.2% and it missed. We called Under 3.5 at 79.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 58.5% and it landed (2 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 59.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Eyupspor have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, Alanyaspor 1.2 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 40.8% for over 2.5 and 67.9% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Eyupspor have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Alanyaspor in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.6% | 91.4% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.1% | 96.9% |
Team goal lines
69.3%
33.0%
11.6%
67.9%
31.4%
10.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 58.5% | 41.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 5.9% | 94.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.5% | 83.6% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
47.7%Both Teams to Score40.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 40.8% for three or more goals and 67.9% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Eyupspor favoured at 36.3%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Eyupspor to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Eyupspor 3 · 1 draws · Alanyaspor 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Eyupspor vs Alanyaspor?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 40.8%. The match finished with 3 goals (2-1), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.