Süper Lig
Genclerbirligi vs 
Kasimpasa Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Genclerbirligi have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, Kasimpasa 1.2 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 44.2% for over 2.5 and 70.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Genclerbirligi have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Kasimpasa in 1 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.7% | 9.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 23.1% | 76.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.2% | 89.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.9% | 96.2% |
Team goal lines
72.8%
37.3%
14.3%
68.2%
31.7%
10.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 13.0% | 87.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.9% | 88.1% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
50.3%Both Teams to Score44.2%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 44.2% for three or more goals and 70.8% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Genclerbirligi favoured at 39.5%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Genclerbirligi to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genclerbirligi 2 · 1 draws · Kasimpasa 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 44.2% for Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa.
Will there be a first-half goal in Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 71.1%.
How often have Genclerbirligi gone over 2.5 recently?
Genclerbirligi have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Kasimpasa in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.