Süper Lig
Eyupspor vs 
Alanyaspor Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 64.1% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 87.6% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 64.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.5% for over 2.5 to 28.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. Between the two sides, Alanyaspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 19.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.1%
35.1%
66.9%
40.4%
Card handicap
| Eyupspor line | Eyupspor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| -0.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| +0.5 | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 64.2% | 35.8% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Eyupspor vs Alanyaspor. Slightly more cards are projected for Alanyaspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
64.1%Over 3.5 cards12.4%Any red card62.1%Eyupspor over 1.5 cards66.9%Alanyaspor over 1.5 cards77.1%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Eyupspor over 1.5 cards sits at 62.1% and Alanyaspor at 66.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.4% (Eyupspor 7.5%, Alanyaspor 5.3%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Eyupspor vs Alanyaspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 64.1% for Eyupspor vs Alanyaspor.
Will there be a red card in Eyupspor vs Alanyaspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Eyupspor vs Alanyaspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated Alanyaspor to pick up more cards at 43.9%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.