Eredivisie
Excelsior vs 
PSV Eindhoven Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 61.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.8% for over 22.5 to 39.8% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. On the shot count, Excelsior are the model’s pick to have more shots at 51.0%, with a level count at 5.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 39.8% | 60.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.0%
57.2%
42.4%
67.4%
51.8%
37.1%
Shot handicap
| Excelsior line | Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| -0.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| +0.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| +2.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 52.8% | 47.2% |
This season (2026/27)
18.0Excelsior shots per game21.0PSV Eindhoven shots per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Excelsior.
In-depth analysis
61.5%Over 24.5 shots57.2%Excelsior over 12.5 shots51.8%PSV Eindhoven over 12.5 shots73.9%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Excelsior over 12.5 shots sits at 57.2% and PSV Eindhoven at 51.8%. This season Excelsior have averaged 18.0 shots a game and PSV Eindhoven 21.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 61.5% for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven.
Which team will have more shots in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Before kickoff, the model rated Excelsior to take more shots at 51.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.