Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
Draw or PSV Eindhoven
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was PSV Eindhoven at 53.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 71.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 69.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes PSV Eindhoven heavy favourites at 53% when Excelsior meet PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie on 15 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate PSV Eindhoven higher (62%) than our model does. • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 71% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 69%. • Recent form reads W4 D2 L0 for Excelsior against W4 D2 L0 for PSV Eindhoven. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Excelsior, 0 draws and 5 for PSV Eindhoven at 3.8 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.17).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
25.5%+8.8%
21.3%-0.3%
53.2%-8.5%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.17)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Excelsior 0 · 0 draws · PSV Eindhoven 5 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven100.0%100.0%
0.0%100.0%
100.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 82.8% | Over 7.5 | 73.9% | Over 8.5 | 63.6% | Over 9.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Excelsior | 39.0% | Most: PSV Eindhoven | 50.0% | ||||
| Excelsior Over 4.2 | 49.5% | PSV Eindhoven Over 4.2 | 57.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | Over 3.5 | 29.6% | Over 4.5 | 14.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Excelsior | 27.6% | Most: PSV Eindhoven | 47.5% | ||
| Excelsior Over 1.8 | 32.1% | PSV Eindhoven Over 1.8 | 47.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Excelsior clean sheet | 11.2% |
|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven clean sheet | 22.1% |
| Excelsior win to nil | 8.2% |
| PSV Eindhoven win to nil | 19.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 25.5% | draw | 21.3% | away | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 46.8% | 12 | 78.7% | X2 | 74.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 32.4% | away | 67.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 69.1% | no | 30.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 11.2% | away | 22.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 8.3% | away | 19.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 13.9% | home_by_2 | 7.4% | home_by_3plus | 4.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.6% | away_by_2 | 16.0% | away_by_3plus | 16.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 3.0% | 0-1 | 5.1% | 0-2 | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.4% | 0-4 | 2.4% | 0-5 | 1.1% |
| 1-0 | 3.4% | 1-1 | 8.7% | 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 1-3 | 6.6% | 1-4 | 3.6% | 1-5 | 1.6% |
| 2-0 | 2.8% | 2-1 | 6.1% | 2-2 | 6.7% |
| 2-3 | 4.9% | 2-4 | 2.7% | 2-5 | 1.2% |
| 3-0 | 1.4% | 3-1 | 3.0% | 3-2 | 3.3% |
| 3-3 | 2.4% | 3-4 | 1.3% | 3-5 | 0.6% |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 4-1 | 1.1% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.9% | 4-4 | 0.5% | 4-5 | 0.2% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.2% | 5-5 | 0.1% |
| other | 2.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 200.0% | p | 9.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 97.0% | under_0.5 | 3.0% | over_1.5 | 88.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 11.5% | over_2.5 | 71.0% | under_2.5 | 29.0% |
| over_3.5 | 50.1% | under_3.5 | 50.0% | over_4.5 | 30.8% |
| under_4.5 | 69.2% | over_5.5 | 16.7% | under_5.5 | 83.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.1% | even | 50.9% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.4% | under_0.5 | 22.6% | over_1.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.2% | over_2.5 | 18.8% | under_2.5 | 81.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 88.8% | under_0.5 | 11.2% | over_1.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 35.8% | over_2.5 | 37.4% | under_2.5 | 62.6% |
most
| home | 25.5% | draw | 21.3% | away | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.3% | away_+2.5 | 95.7% | home_-1.5 | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 88.4% | home_-0.5 | 25.5% | away_+0.5 | 74.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 46.8% | away_-0.5 | 53.2% | home_+1.5 | 67.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 32.5% | home_+2.5 | 83.4% | away_-2.5 | 16.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 3.0% | exact_1 | 8.5% | exact_2 | 17.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.9% | exact_4 | 19.2% | exact_5 | 14.1% |
| exact_6 | 8.7% | exact_7plus | 8.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 32.0% | draw | 32.9% | away | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 83.4% | under_0.5 | 16.6% | over_1.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 46.4% | over_2.5 | 26.9% | under_2.5 | 73.2% |
btts
| yes | 35.1% | no | 64.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 16.6% | exact_1 | 29.8% | exact_2 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 16.0% | exact_4plus | 10.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 19.5% | draw | 28.4% | away | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 86.9% | under_0.5 | 13.1% | over_1.5 | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 39.7% | over_2.5 | 33.3% | under_2.5 | 66.8% |
btts
| yes | 37.0% | no | 63.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 18.8% | H/D | 7.1% | H/A | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 6.4% | D/D | 9.4% | D/A | 17.1% |
| A/H | 1.3% | A/D | 3.6% | A/A | 30.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.2% | under_7.5 | 21.8% | over_8.5 | 67.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.2% | over_9.5 | 56.3% | under_9.5 | 43.7% |
| over_10.5 | 44.7% | under_10.5 | 55.3% | over_11.5 | 33.9% |
| under_11.5 | 66.1% | over_12.5 | 24.6% | under_12.5 | 75.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.0% | under_3.5 | 28.0% | over_4.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.9% | over_5.5 | 42.3% | under_5.5 | 57.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 68.9% | under_3.5 | 31.1% | over_4.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.7% | over_5.5 | 38.5% | under_5.5 | 61.5% |
most
| home | 47.5% | draw | 10.0% | away | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.9% | away_+3.5 | 79.1% | home_-1.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 62.3% | home_-0.5 | 47.5% | away_+0.5 | 52.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 57.5% | away_-0.5 | 42.6% | home_+1.5 | 66.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 33.1% | home_+3.5 | 82.5% | away_-3.5 | 17.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.8% | under_22.5 | 28.2% | over_24.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 38.5% | over_26.5 | 50.5% | under_26.5 | 49.5% |
| over_28.5 | 39.8% | under_28.5 | 60.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.0% | under_10.5 | 28.0% | over_12.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.8% | over_14.5 | 42.4% | under_14.5 | 57.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 67.4% | under_10.5 | 32.6% | over_12.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.2% | over_14.5 | 37.1% | under_14.5 | 62.9% |
most
| home | 51.0% | draw | 5.6% | away | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 29.7% | away_+4.5 | 70.3% | home_-2.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 60.0% | home_-0.5 | 51.0% | away_+0.5 | 49.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.6% | away_-0.5 | 43.4% | home_+2.5 | 67.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 32.8% | home_+4.5 | 76.6% | away_-4.5 | 23.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 82.8% | under_6.5 | 17.2% | over_7.5 | 73.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 26.1% | over_8.5 | 63.6% | under_8.5 | 36.4% |
| over_9.5 | 52.8% | under_9.5 | 47.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.7% | under_3.5 | 34.3% | over_4.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.5% | over_5.5 | 34.8% | under_5.5 | 65.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 72.2% | under_3.5 | 27.8% | over_4.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.8% | over_5.5 | 42.6% | under_5.5 | 57.5% |
most
| home | 39.0% | draw | 11.0% | away | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 20.3% | away_+2.5 | 79.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.0% | home_+0.5 | 50.0% | away_-0.5 | 50.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 70.9% | away_-2.5 | 29.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 51.8% | under_2.5 | 48.2% | over_3.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 70.4% | over_4.5 | 14.4% | under_4.5 | 85.6% |
| over_5.5 | 6.1% | under_5.5 | 93.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.8% | even | 50.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 32.1% | under_1.5 | 67.9% | over_2.5 | 11.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 88.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 47.3% | under_1.5 | 52.7% | over_2.5 | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 78.5% |
most
| home | 27.6% | draw | 24.9% | away | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.0% | away_+1.5 | 89.0% | home_-0.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.4% | home_+0.5 | 52.5% | away_-0.5 | 47.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.4% | away_-1.5 | 24.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 37.1% | under_20.5 | 62.9% | over_22.5 | 23.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 76.6% | over_24.5 | 13.4% | under_24.5 | 86.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 46.7% | under_9.5 | 53.3% | over_11.5 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 74.2% | over_13.5 | 12.0% | under_13.5 | 88.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 49.2% | under_9.5 | 50.8% | over_11.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 72.0% | over_13.5 | 13.4% | under_13.5 | 86.6% |
most
| home | 44.0% | draw | 8.4% | away | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.7% | away_+3.5 | 78.3% | home_-0.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.0% | home_+2.5 | 68.5% | away_-2.5 | 31.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.5% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.3% | no | 92.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Excelsior predictions · PSV Eindhoven predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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