La Liga
Espanol vs 
Sevilla Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 54.5% and it landed (18 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 61.5% and it missed (6 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 45.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 58.3% for over 22.5 to 23.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.5%. Between the two sides, Espanol are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.4%, with a level count at 6.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.3% | 41.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.2% | 76.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.6%
52.6%
36.2%
51.2%
33.2%
19.3%
Shot handicap
| Espanol line | Espanol | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| -2.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| -0.5 | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| +0.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.6% | 63.4% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Espanol.
In-depth analysis
45.5%Over 24.5 shots52.6%Espanol over 12.5 shots33.2%Sevilla over 12.5 shots61.5%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Espanol over 12.5 shots sits at 52.6% and Sevilla at 33.2%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Espanol vs Sevilla?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 45.5% for Espanol vs Sevilla.
Which team will have more shots in Espanol vs Sevilla?
Before kickoff, the model rated Espanol to take more shots at 60.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.