La Liga
Espanol vs 
Sevilla Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 71.5% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 84.5% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 71.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 86.1% for over 2.5 to 37.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.1%. Between the two sides, Sevilla are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.1%, with a level count at 17.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.1% | 14.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.1% | 62.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
65.7%
39.7%
73.0%
48.6%
Card handicap
| Espanol line | Espanol | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| -0.5 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| +0.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| +1.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 85.6% | 14.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 63.7% | 36.3% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Espanol vs Sevilla. Slightly more cards are projected for Sevilla for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
71.5%Over 3.5 cards15.5%Any red card65.7%Espanol over 1.5 cards73.0%Sevilla over 1.5 cards75.8%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Espanol over 1.5 cards sits at 65.7% and Sevilla at 73.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.5% (Espanol 9.3%, Sevilla 6.8%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Espanol vs Sevilla?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 71.5% for Espanol vs Sevilla.
Will there be a red card in Espanol vs Sevilla?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Espanol vs Sevilla?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sevilla to pick up more cards at 47.1%, with a level count at 17.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.