League TwoCrawley Town vs Crewe Corners
Result
Settled, final score 0-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 54.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.4% for over 7.5 to 24.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. Between the two sides, Crawley Town are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 45.8%, with a level count at 10.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 24.5% | 75.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
71.5%
56.0%
40.9%
70.2%
54.4%
39.3%
Corner handicap
| Crawley Town line | Crawley Town | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35.6% | 64.5% |
| -0.5 | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| +0.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| +1.5 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
This season (2025/26)
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Crawley Town.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Crawley Town over 4.5 corners sits at 56.0% and Crewe at 54.4%. This season Crawley Town have averaged 5.5 corners won a game and Crewe 4.9.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 55.6% for Crawley Town vs Crewe.
Which team will win the corner count in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Before kickoff, the model rated Crawley Town to win the corner count at 45.8%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Crawley Town and Crewe average this season?
Crawley Town have won 5.5 corners a game this season and Crewe 4.9.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.