Crawley Town vs Crewe: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Crewe
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Crewe at 37.6%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 56.4% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 50.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Crawley Town and Crewe almost evenly, Crewe marginally on top at 38%. Bookmakers see it the same way, 35% on Crewe, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 draws and 4 for Crewe at 2.6 goals per match. The run in: Crawley Town arrive W1 D3 L2, Crewe W1 D1 L4. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
33.7%-3.4%
28.7%+0.7%
37.6%+2.7%
value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Crawley Town 0 · 1 draws · Crewe 4 · 2.6 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
43.5%52.2%
45.7%56.5%
26.1%19.6%
League averages this season: 2.58 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 64.6% | Over 7.5 | 51.8% | Over 8.5 | 39.5% | Over 9.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Crawley Town | 49.8% | Most: Crewe | 37.2% | ||||
| Crawley Town Over 4.2 | 40.6% | Crewe Over 4.2 | 31.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.2% | Over 3.5 | 52.8% | Over 4.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Crawley Town | 38.8% | Most: Crewe | 39.9% | ||
| Crawley Town Over 1.8 | 56.3% | Crewe Over 1.8 | 57.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Crawley Town clean sheet | 28.6% |
|---|---|
| Crewe clean sheet | 31.1% |
| Crawley Town win to nil | 19.0% |
| Crewe win to nil | 21.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 33.7% | draw | 28.7% | away | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 62.4% | 12 | 71.3% | X2 | 66.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 47.2% | away | 52.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.8% | no | 50.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.6% | away | 31.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.1% | away | 21.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.4% | home_by_2 | 9.7% | home_by_3plus | 4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.8% | away_by_2 | 11.1% | away_by_3plus | 5.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.6% | 0-1 | 10.5% | 0-2 | 7.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.9% | 0-4 | 0.9% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | 1-1 | 13.6% | 1-2 | 8.1% |
| 1-3 | 3.4% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.1% | 2-1 | 7.6% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.4% | 3-1 | 3.0% | 3-2 | 1.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.5% | under_0.5 | 9.6% | over_1.5 | 70.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.8% | over_2.5 | 43.6% | under_2.5 | 56.4% |
| over_3.5 | 22.6% | under_3.5 | 77.4% | over_4.5 | 9.9% |
| under_4.5 | 90.1% | over_5.5 | 3.7% | under_5.5 | 96.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 68.8% | under_0.5 | 31.2% | over_1.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.3% | over_2.5 | 11.5% | under_2.5 | 88.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.4% | under_0.5 | 28.6% | over_1.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.4% | over_2.5 | 13.2% | under_2.5 | 86.8% |
most
| home | 33.7% | draw | 28.7% | away | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.6% | away_+2.5 | 95.4% | home_-1.5 | 14.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.7% | home_-0.5 | 33.7% | away_+0.5 | 66.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.4% | away_-0.5 | 37.6% | home_+1.5 | 83.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.8% | home_+2.5 | 94.3% | away_-2.5 | 5.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.6% | exact_1 | 20.2% | exact_2 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.0% | exact_4 | 12.7% | exact_5 | 6.2% |
| exact_6 | 2.5% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 22.3% | draw | 48.8% | away | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 59.9% | under_0.5 | 40.1% | over_1.5 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.8% | over_2.5 | 6.5% | under_2.5 | 93.5% |
btts
| yes | 13.3% | no | 86.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 40.1% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 16.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.1% | exact_4plus | 1.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.1% | draw | 38.2% | away | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.3% | under_0.5 | 24.7% | over_1.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.3% | over_2.5 | 16.6% | under_2.5 | 83.4% |
btts
| yes | 25.1% | no | 74.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 15.6% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.2% | D/D | 18.7% | D/A | 16.9% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 4.8% | A/A | 22.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.4% | under_7.5 | 22.6% | over_8.5 | 67.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.0% | over_9.5 | 55.6% | under_9.5 | 44.4% |
| over_10.5 | 44.2% | under_10.5 | 55.8% | over_11.5 | 33.6% |
| under_11.5 | 66.4% | over_12.5 | 24.5% | under_12.5 | 75.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.5% | under_3.5 | 28.5% | over_4.5 | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.0% | over_5.5 | 40.9% | under_5.5 | 59.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 70.2% | under_3.5 | 29.8% | over_4.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.6% | over_5.5 | 39.3% | under_5.5 | 60.8% |
most
| home | 45.8% | draw | 10.6% | away | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.5% | away_+3.5 | 81.5% | home_-1.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 64.5% | home_-0.5 | 45.8% | away_+0.5 | 54.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.4% | away_-0.5 | 43.6% | home_+1.5 | 66.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 33.5% | home_+3.5 | 82.9% | away_-3.5 | 17.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.0% | under_22.5 | 41.0% | over_24.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.7% | over_26.5 | 34.3% | under_26.5 | 65.7% |
| over_28.5 | 23.9% | under_28.5 | 76.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.0% | under_10.5 | 30.0% | over_12.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.0% | over_14.5 | 36.6% | under_14.5 | 63.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.9% | under_10.5 | 48.1% | over_12.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.1% | over_14.5 | 19.8% | under_14.5 | 80.2% |
most
| home | 60.3% | draw | 6.1% | away | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.9% | away_+4.5 | 65.1% | home_-2.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.6% | home_-0.5 | 60.3% | away_+0.5 | 39.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.4% | away_-0.5 | 33.6% | home_+2.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.7% | home_+4.5 | 85.8% | away_-4.5 | 14.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 64.6% | under_6.5 | 35.4% | over_7.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 48.2% | over_8.5 | 39.5% | under_8.5 | 60.5% |
| over_9.5 | 28.6% | under_9.5 | 71.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 57.8% | under_3.5 | 42.2% | over_4.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.4% | over_5.5 | 26.3% | under_5.5 | 73.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.9% | under_3.5 | 51.1% | over_4.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.3% | over_5.5 | 18.9% | under_5.5 | 81.1% |
most
| home | 49.8% | draw | 13.0% | away | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.6% | away_+2.5 | 74.4% | home_-0.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.2% | home_+0.5 | 62.7% | away_-0.5 | 37.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.6% | away_-2.5 | 16.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.2% | under_2.5 | 26.8% | over_3.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 47.2% | over_4.5 | 33.4% | under_4.5 | 66.6% |
| over_5.5 | 18.5% | under_5.5 | 81.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 56.3% | under_1.5 | 43.7% | over_2.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 57.1% | under_1.5 | 42.9% | over_2.5 | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.9% |
most
| home | 38.8% | draw | 21.3% | away | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.8% | away_+1.5 | 79.2% | home_-0.5 | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.2% | home_+0.5 | 60.1% | away_-0.5 | 39.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.4% | away_-1.5 | 21.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 79.9% | under_20.5 | 20.1% | over_22.5 | 67.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 32.7% | over_24.5 | 52.8% | under_24.5 | 47.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 74.2% | under_9.5 | 25.8% | over_11.5 | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 46.5% | over_13.5 | 33.1% | under_13.5 | 66.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 81.6% | under_9.5 | 18.4% | over_11.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.4% | over_13.5 | 43.3% | under_13.5 | 56.7% |
most
| home | 39.0% | draw | 7.3% | away | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.1% | away_+3.5 | 79.9% | home_-0.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.0% | home_+2.5 | 61.0% | away_-2.5 | 39.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 9.3% | no | 90.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.5% | no | 96.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Crawley Town predictions · Crewe predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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