Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town: model prediction
League TwoChesterfield or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Chesterfield at 46.8%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.8% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 51.4% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Chesterfield: 47% is the model's line for this League Two meeting on 15 August 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Chesterfield at 54%. Caution noted. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W4 D2 L0 for Chesterfield against W1 D3 L2 for Fleetwood Town. The recent series reads 1 wins for Chesterfield, 2 draws and 1 for Fleetwood Town over 4 games, 2.2 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
46.8%-6.8%
27.0%+1.1%
26.2%+5.7%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Chesterfield 1 · 2 draws · Fleetwood Town 1 · 2.3 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
45.7%45.7%
60.9%67.4%
30.4%19.6%
League averages this season: 2.58 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 60.7% | Over 7.5 | 47.6% | Over 8.5 | 35.3% | Over 9.5 | 24.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Chesterfield | 52.0% | Most: Fleetwood Town | 34.8% | ||||
| Chesterfield Over 4.2 | 39.2% | Fleetwood Town Over 4.2 | 27.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.9% | Over 3.5 | 53.7% | Over 4.5 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Chesterfield | 25.3% | Most: Fleetwood Town | 54.9% | ||
| Chesterfield Over 1.8 | 45.6% | Fleetwood Town Over 1.8 | 67.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Chesterfield clean sheet | 34.5% |
|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town clean sheet | 22.3% |
| Chesterfield win to nil | 26.2% |
| Fleetwood Town win to nil | 14.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 46.8% | draw | 27.0% | away | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 73.9% | 12 | 73.0% | X2 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 64.2% | away | 35.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.4% | no | 48.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.7% | away | 22.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.3% | away | 14.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.0% | home_by_2 | 14.3% | home_by_3plus | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.1% | away_by_2 | 7.2% | away_by_3plus | 2.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 7.6% | 0-2 | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.5% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.3% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 2-1 | 9.2% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.4% | 3-1 | 4.6% | 3-2 | 2.4% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.7% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.9% | over_2.5 | 47.2% | under_2.5 | 52.8% |
| over_3.5 | 25.6% | under_3.5 | 74.4% | over_4.5 | 11.7% |
| under_4.5 | 88.3% | over_5.5 | 4.6% | under_5.5 | 95.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.7% | under_0.5 | 22.3% | over_1.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.7% | over_2.5 | 19.2% | under_2.5 | 80.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.3% | under_0.5 | 34.7% | over_1.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.4% | over_2.5 | 9.2% | under_2.5 | 90.8% |
most
| home | 46.8% | draw | 27.0% | away | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 9.5% | away_+2.5 | 90.5% | home_-1.5 | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 76.1% | home_-0.5 | 46.8% | away_+0.5 | 53.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.8% | away_-0.5 | 26.2% | home_+1.5 | 89.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.1% | home_+2.5 | 97.1% | away_-2.5 | 2.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.5% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.0% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.1% | draw | 43.2% | away | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.5% | under_0.5 | 32.5% | over_1.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.1% | over_2.5 | 10.4% | under_2.5 | 89.6% |
btts
| yes | 17.8% | no | 82.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.5% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 20.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.7% | exact_4plus | 2.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.6% | draw | 36.5% | away | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.9% | under_0.5 | 23.2% | over_1.5 | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.0% | over_2.5 | 18.2% | under_2.5 | 81.8% |
btts
| yes | 25.6% | no | 74.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 29.1% | H/D | 4.5% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.0% | D/D | 15.8% | D/A | 9.5% |
| A/H | 2.8% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 13.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.5% | under_7.5 | 22.5% | over_8.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.9% | over_9.5 | 55.7% | under_9.5 | 44.3% |
| over_10.5 | 44.3% | under_10.5 | 55.7% | over_11.5 | 33.8% |
| under_11.5 | 66.2% | over_12.5 | 24.6% | under_12.5 | 75.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.5% | under_3.5 | 22.5% | over_4.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.5% | over_5.5 | 48.8% | under_5.5 | 51.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.9% | under_3.5 | 37.1% | over_4.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.9% | over_5.5 | 31.3% | under_5.5 | 68.8% |
most
| home | 56.6% | draw | 10.1% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.7% | away_+3.5 | 73.3% | home_-1.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.6% | away_+0.5 | 43.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.8% | away_-0.5 | 33.2% | home_+1.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.0% | away_-3.5 | 11.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.0% | under_22.5 | 43.0% | over_24.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.8% | over_26.5 | 32.3% | under_26.5 | 67.7% |
| over_28.5 | 22.2% | under_28.5 | 77.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.0% | under_10.5 | 30.0% | over_12.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 47.0% | over_14.5 | 36.5% | under_14.5 | 63.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.8% | under_10.5 | 51.2% | over_12.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.1% | over_14.5 | 17.5% | under_14.5 | 82.5% |
most
| home | 62.3% | draw | 6.1% | away | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.7% | away_+4.5 | 63.3% | home_-2.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.6% | home_-0.5 | 62.3% | away_+0.5 | 37.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.4% | away_-0.5 | 31.6% | home_+2.5 | 79.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.0% | home_+4.5 | 87.2% | away_-4.5 | 12.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 60.7% | under_6.5 | 39.3% | over_7.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 52.4% | over_8.5 | 35.3% | under_8.5 | 64.7% |
| over_9.5 | 24.9% | under_9.5 | 75.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 56.5% | under_3.5 | 43.6% | over_4.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.8% | over_5.5 | 25.1% | under_5.5 | 75.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.0% | under_3.5 | 56.0% | over_4.5 | 27.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.7% | over_5.5 | 15.5% | under_5.5 | 84.5% |
most
| home | 52.0% | draw | 13.2% | away | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.8% | away_+2.5 | 73.2% | home_-0.5 | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.0% | home_+0.5 | 65.2% | away_-0.5 | 34.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.6% | away_-2.5 | 14.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.9% | under_2.5 | 26.1% | over_3.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 46.4% | over_4.5 | 34.2% | under_4.5 | 65.8% |
| over_5.5 | 19.2% | under_5.5 | 80.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 45.6% | under_1.5 | 54.4% | over_2.5 | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 79.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 67.1% | under_1.5 | 32.9% | over_2.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.4% |
most
| home | 25.3% | draw | 19.8% | away | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.5% | away_+1.5 | 88.5% | home_-0.5 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 74.7% | home_+0.5 | 45.1% | away_-0.5 | 54.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 65.8% | away_-1.5 | 34.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 59.1% | under_20.5 | 40.9% | over_22.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 56.7% | over_24.5 | 28.9% | under_24.5 | 71.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 45.7% | under_9.5 | 54.4% | over_11.5 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 75.7% | over_13.5 | 10.7% | under_13.5 | 89.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.8% | under_9.5 | 22.2% | over_11.5 | 58.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.8% | over_13.5 | 37.7% | under_13.5 | 62.3% |
most
| home | 23.3% | draw | 6.6% | away | 70.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 9.0% | away_+3.5 | 91.0% | home_-0.5 | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 76.7% | home_+2.5 | 45.1% | away_-2.5 | 54.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.8% | no | 88.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.8% | no | 95.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.4% | no | 92.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Chesterfield predictions · Fleetwood Town predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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