Kasimpasa vs Amedspor prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Kasimpasa vs Amedspor: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Süper Lig
Kasimpasa

LWDWD

Full time2-2Sun, 6 Sep 202615:00UK
Amedspor

WLW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Kasimpasa or draw

73%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Kasimpasa 2-2 Amedspor
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Kasimpasa at 51.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.4% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.4% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 74.0% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 50.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 68.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.6% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.3% and it missed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 66.0% and it landed (7 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.9% and it missed (28 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 55.4% and it landed (11 shots on target). We called No at 86.5% and it landed.

Match data Kasimpasa Amedspor
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 2
Shots 14 14
Shots on target 7 4
Corners 2 9
Yellow cards 5 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 15 10

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
KasimpasaWin probability
51.4%
Top 3 convictions

Kasimpasa or draw77.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Over 1.5 goals73.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Over 8.5 corners55.7%Good chancePays @ 1.80

Model read

▾

Few Süper Lig fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Kasimpasa carry a 51% win probability against Amedspor on 6 September 2026. Our number sits above the market's 44% for Kasimpasa. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Amedspor carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Kasimpasa arrive W2 D3 L1, Amedspor W2 D0 L1. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.6%@ 2.10
Over 9.5 corners45.0%@ 2.22
Over 10.5 corners35.1%@ 2.85
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals52.4%@ 1.91
Both teams to score50.4%@ 1.98
Draw or Amedspor48.6%@ 2.06
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.03
1-0 correct score11.6%@ 8.65
2-0 correct score9.7%@ 10.27

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Kasimpasa

51.4%+7.1%

Draw

26.2%-1.2%

Amedspor

22.4%-5.9%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.6%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.7%

Good chance

Over 9.545.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.5%

Low chance

Most cornersKasimpasa50.9%Amedspor38.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.4%2.547.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.573.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

KasimpasaLWDWD
AmedsporWLW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

KasimpasaAmedspor
League position#8 of 18#5 of 18
Record W-D-L1-2-02-0-1
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.81 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Kasimpasa win2.101.95
Draw3.303.82
Amedspor win3.204.46
Over 2.5 goals2.102.10
Under 2.5 goals1.701.91

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Kasimpasa win1.95
Draw3.82
Amedspor win4.46
Both teams to score1.98

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.10
Over 3.5 goals3.85
Kasimpasa most1.95
Amedspor most4.46

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.73
Over 9.5 corners2.19
Over 10.5 corners2.91
Kasimpasa most1.96
Amedspor most2.62

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.21
Over 3.5 cards1.52
Over 4.5 cards2.13
Over 5.5 cards3.34
Kasimpasa most2.81
Amedspor most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.47
Over 7.5 SoT1.80
Over 8.5 SoT2.34
Over 9.5 SoT3.19
Kasimpasa most1.84
Amedspor most3.03

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.04
Over 26.5 shots2.68
Over 28.5 shots3.74
Kasimpasa most1.61
Amedspor most3.13

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.30
Over 24.5 fouls1.56
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 68.1% Over 7.5 55.4% Over 8.5 42.8% Over 9.5 31.4%
Most: Kasimpasa 54.4% Most: Amedspor 33.0%
Kasimpasa Over 4.2 46.1% Amedspor Over 4.2 30.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.8% Over 3.5 66.0% Over 4.5 47.0%
Most: Kasimpasa 35.6% Most: Amedspor 45.1%
Kasimpasa Over 1.8 62.7% Amedspor Over 1.8 68.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Kasimpasa clean sheet 37.4%
Amedspor clean sheet 20.1%
Kasimpasa win to nil 29.3%
Amedspor win to nil 12.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 51.4% draw 26.2% away 22.4%
double_chance
1X 77.6% 12 73.8% X2 48.6%
dnb
home 69.6% away 30.4%
btts
yes 50.4% no 49.6%
clean_sheet
home 37.7% away 20.1%
win_to_nil
home 29.5% away 12.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.9% home_by_2 15.9% home_by_3plus 11.6%
away_by_1 14.3% away_by_2 5.9% away_by_3plus 2.2%
correct_score
0-0 8.2% 0-1 6.8% 0-2 3.6%
0-3 1.2% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.6% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 5.8%
1-3 1.9% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.7% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.2% 3-1 5.1% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.1% 4-1 2.0% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.8% under_0.5 8.2% over_1.5 73.4%
under_1.5 26.6% over_2.5 47.6% under_2.5 52.4%
over_3.5 26.0% under_3.5 74.0% over_4.5 12.0%
under_4.5 88.0% over_5.5 4.8% under_5.5 95.2%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 79.9% under_0.5 20.1% over_1.5 47.6%
under_1.5 52.4% over_2.5 21.8% under_2.5 78.2%
team_away
over_0.5 62.3% under_0.5 37.7% over_1.5 25.6%
under_1.5 74.4% over_2.5 7.6% under_2.5 92.4%
most
home 51.4% draw 26.2% away 22.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.6% away_+2.5 88.4% home_-1.5 27.5%
away_+1.5 72.5% home_-0.5 51.4% away_+0.5 48.6%
home_+0.5 77.6% away_-0.5 22.4% home_+1.5 91.9%
away_-1.5 8.1% home_+2.5 97.8% away_-2.5 2.2%
total_exact
exact_0 8.2% exact_1 18.4% exact_2 25.8%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 14.0% exact_5 7.2%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.1% draw 42.6% away 26.3%
total
over_0.5 68.9% under_0.5 31.2% over_1.5 32.5%
under_1.5 67.5% over_2.5 11.3% under_2.5 88.7%
btts
yes 19.5% no 80.6%
total_exact
exact_0 31.2% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.2%
exact_3 8.2% exact_4plus 3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.0% draw 38.7% away 34.3%
total
over_0.5 74.6% under_0.5 25.4% over_1.5 39.7%
under_1.5 60.3% over_2.5 15.9% under_2.5 84.1%
btts
yes 24.4% no 75.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.5% H/D 6.0% H/A 2.6%
D/H 11.5% D/D 16.5% D/A 14.6%
A/H 1.5% A/D 4.3% A/A 20.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.8% under_7.5 30.2% over_8.5 57.9%
under_8.5 42.1% over_9.5 45.7% under_9.5 54.3%
over_10.5 34.4% under_10.5 65.6% over_11.5 24.6%
under_11.5 75.4% over_12.5 16.9% under_12.5 83.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.2% under_3.5 30.8% over_4.5 53.4%
under_4.5 46.6% over_5.5 38.3% under_5.5 61.7%
team_away
over_3.5 60.5% under_3.5 39.5% over_4.5 43.6%
under_4.5 56.4% over_5.5 29.0% under_5.5 71.0%
most
home 51.0% draw 10.8% away 38.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.4% away_+3.5 78.6% home_-1.5 40.1%
away_+1.5 59.9% home_-0.5 51.0% away_+0.5 49.0%
home_+0.5 61.8% away_-0.5 38.2% home_+1.5 71.8%
away_-1.5 28.2% home_+3.5 86.9% away_-3.5 13.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.4% under_22.5 38.6% over_24.5 49.1%
under_24.5 50.9% over_26.5 37.3% under_26.5 62.7%
over_28.5 26.8% under_28.5 73.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.3% under_10.5 27.7% over_12.5 56.3%
under_12.5 43.7% over_14.5 40.4% under_14.5 59.6%
team_away
over_10.5 51.9% under_10.5 48.1% over_12.5 34.4%
under_12.5 65.6% over_14.5 20.6% under_14.5 79.4%
most
home 62.3% draw 5.8% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.7% away_+4.5 62.3% home_-2.5 50.0%
away_+2.5 50.0% home_-0.5 62.3% away_+0.5 37.7%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+2.5 78.3%
away_-2.5 21.7% home_+4.5 86.3% away_-4.5 13.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 68.1% under_6.5 31.9% over_7.5 55.4%
under_7.5 44.6% over_8.5 42.8% under_8.5 57.2%
over_9.5 31.4% under_9.5 68.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.3% under_3.5 36.7% over_4.5 46.1%
under_4.5 53.9% over_5.5 30.8% under_5.5 69.2%
team_away
over_3.5 48.2% under_3.5 51.8% over_4.5 30.8%
under_4.5 69.2% over_5.5 17.8% under_5.5 82.2%
most
home 54.4% draw 12.7% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.4% away_+2.5 70.6% home_-0.5 54.4%
away_+0.5 45.6% home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0%
home_+2.5 86.4% away_-2.5 13.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.8% under_2.5 17.2% over_3.5 66.0%
under_3.5 34.0% over_4.5 47.0% under_4.5 53.0%
over_5.5 29.9% under_5.5 70.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.7% under_1.5 37.3% over_2.5 35.7%
under_2.5 64.3%
team_away
over_1.5 68.8% under_1.5 31.2% over_2.5 42.6%
under_2.5 57.4%
most
home 35.7% draw 19.3% away 45.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.6% away_+1.5 80.4% home_-0.5 35.7%
away_+0.5 64.4% home_+0.5 54.9% away_-0.5 45.1%
home_+1.5 72.9% away_-1.5 27.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 87.1% under_20.5 12.9% over_22.5 77.1%
under_22.5 22.9% over_24.5 64.2% under_24.5 35.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 84.2% under_9.5 15.8% over_11.5 67.3%
under_11.5 32.8% over_13.5 47.0% under_13.5 53.0%
team_away
over_9.5 83.4% under_9.5 16.6% over_11.5 66.0%
under_11.5 34.0% over_13.5 45.6% under_13.5 54.4%
most
home 47.3% draw 7.3% away 45.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.0% away_+3.5 73.1% home_-0.5 47.3%
away_+0.5 52.7% home_+2.5 68.5% away_-2.5 31.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.5% no 86.5%
home
yes 8.0% no 92.0%
away
yes 5.9% no 94.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Kasimpasa predictions · Amedspor predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Süper LigKasimpasaAmedsporTrack record