League TwoColchester vs Cheltenham Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 50.9% and it missed (7 in the match). We called No at 89.3% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.3% for over 2.5 to 16.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. Head to head on cards, Cheltenham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 21.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.0% | 84.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.7%
21.8%
60.1%
33.0%
Card handicap
| Colchester line | Colchester | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| -0.5 | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| +0.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| +1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 55.6% | 44.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 40.4% | 59.6% |
This season (2026/27)
0.7Colchester cards per game10.3Colchester fouls per game1.8Cheltenham cards per game11.8Cheltenham fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Colchester vs Cheltenham. The model leans toward Cheltenham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
49.1%Over 3.5 cards10.7%Any red card47.7%Colchester over 1.5 cards60.1%Cheltenham over 1.5 cards55.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Colchester over 1.5 cards sits at 47.7% and Cheltenham at 60.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.7% (Colchester 1.4%, Cheltenham 9.4%). This season Colchester have averaged 0.7 cards a game and Cheltenham 1.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Colchester vs Cheltenham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.1% for Colchester vs Cheltenham.
Will there be a red card in Colchester vs Cheltenham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Colchester vs Cheltenham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cheltenham to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
