League TwoCheltenham vs Grimsby Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 53.4% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 88.9% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 46.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.1% for over 2.5 to 14.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.6%. On the card count, Cheltenham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.8%, with a level count at 22.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.7% | 72.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.4% | 85.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.1%
26.3%
51.7%
25.1%
Card handicap
| Cheltenham line | Cheltenham | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.8% | 79.1% |
| -0.5 | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| +0.5 | 62.1% | 38.0% |
| +1.5 | 80.5% | 19.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.7% | 64.3% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cheltenham vs Grimsby. It tips Cheltenham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
46.6%Over 3.5 cards11.2%Any red card53.1%Cheltenham over 1.5 cards51.7%Grimsby over 1.5 cards50.8%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Cheltenham over 1.5 cards sits at 53.1% and Grimsby at 51.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.2% (Cheltenham 9.2%, Grimsby 2.1%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Cheltenham vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.6% for Cheltenham vs Grimsby.
Will there be a red card in Cheltenham vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cheltenham vs Grimsby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cheltenham to pick up more cards at 39.8%, with a level count at 22.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.